Iranian Journal of Economic Research
Year:2010 | Volume:14 | Issue:43|Papers Count:12

Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and an impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the impact of trade openness on main macroeconomic variables including growth of output, inflation, and employment for the period 1961-2007 in Iran. More specifically, we intend to study how an increase in the degree of openness affects these main macroeconomic variables. The results of impulse response functions show that in the short run the trade openness increases the output growth but decreases the inflation rate. However, the short-run impact of openness on the growth of employment is negative. Moreover, the results show that a one unit change in the standard error of trade openness has no long-run effect on the output growth, the inflation and the growth of employment.

Since Phillips’ paper in 1958, the literature Phillips curve has witnessed many changes.With a new look, the present study pursues to explain inflation shocks and their relation with unemployment, using a time series data for the period 1965-2005. In this framework, the effects of changes in labor, commodity and money markets on inflation fluctuations are investigated. The unobservable variables of potential production, expected inflation and expected unemployment are estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The methodology based on Fomby’s approach, which selects suitable time series model, results in estimating the VAR model. The results suggest lack of any significant relation between unemployment and inflation fluctuations. The international evidences suggest that the Phillips curve exists in the nearly full employment conditions. The long stagflation in Iran may be the reason for our finding of the lack of such a relation.

In this study, the factors affecting total factor productivity (TFP) are estimated with an emphasis on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iran and 23 selected countries using the data over the period 1996-2006. TFP is computed using the Divisia index technique. The findings of this study show that the main determinants of TFP comprise FDI capital stock, R & D capital stock, university enrolment gross rate (as a proxy for human capital), the degree of openness (as the main sources of technological progress) and the ratio of actual output to potential output (as a measure of capacity utilization rate). However, the magnitudes of the estimated parameters confirm that capacity utilization rate has the highest effect while FDI capital stock has the lowest effect on TFP.

The introduction of the new oil exchanges and development of oil derivatives transactions have dramatically changed the mechanism of oil price movements.Expectations of monetary policies and directions of money flows between the financial and commodity markets have played fundamental roles in deriving the oil prices in the world markets. This paper investigates the effect of the U.S. monetary policy on the real prices of oil and the real revenues of the OPEC member countries using the Dornbusch’s overshooting model. The results show the negative long run Co-integration between oil prices and the U.S. interest rates. The results of the Random Effect Model also reveal that the difference between the real interest rates of the U.S. and that of the OPEC members has a negative impact on the oil revenues of the OPEC members.

Many governments and private projects are done by contractor. They get projects in a competitive bid auction environment. A contractor in order to overcome to other competitors in a bid auction, opportunely cuts down biding price (bids project at or below minimum profit level) and wins the contract, and hopes to recover the loss (or less profit) from this action, through negotiations or claims. Based on a dynamic game theory model, the opportunistic winner would request a compensation for the damage incurred by the party after the contract start. After a claim filed, the owner offers to negotiate with the builder. Nash equilibrium solution of this model is negotiating and settling, not going to court. Appling Rubinstein (1982) bargaining theorem the possible range of negotiation settlement is obtained. The lower bound of this range is minimum gain of builder from claim and maximum bound is maximum loss of owner in claim. In the application case, the opportunely and the claim amount are obtained between the ranges implied by the theoretical model.

The main concern in all economic activities is to obtain maximum output using minimum resources. That is the reason why the wages should be set with respect to productivity. To what extent the wages in practice are set in accordance with productivity is the main subject of our study. We use the survey of large manufacturing establishment’s data set for twenty two industries during 1373-1384 (1996-2005) to estimate the wage equation. Our findings indicate that there is some significant relation between wage, productivity, skills and education. However, labor productivity has trivial role in wage determination in comparison to other explanatory variables.

Capital mobility has been an important part of the economic reforms in many developing countries since the early 1990s, after realization of the benefits of decreasing capital control during 1970s. However, capital liberalization plan has caused major economic crisis in some countries making the policy makers more causios about the plan. In this study, we have used data of 70 selected developing economies over the period 1996-2005 to investigate the effect of capital control on the currency crises. Applying the probit panel data approach, the results show a significant inverse effect of capital control on currency crises in the sampling countries. Also, a higher degree of capital control is accompanied by the lower probability of currency crisis.

Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and an impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the impact of trade openness on main macroeconomic variables including growth of output, inflation, and employment for the period 1961-2007 in Iran. More specifically, we intend to study how an increase in the degree of openness affects these main macroeconomic variables. The results of impulse response functions show that in the short run the trade openness increases the output growth but decreases the inflation rate. However, the short-run impact of openness on the growth of employment is negative. Moreover, the results show that a one unit change in the standard error of trade openness has no long-run effect on the output growth, the inflation and the growth of employment.

A macroeconometric simulation study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export of Agricultural crop in Iran. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). That is, the CPS policy would faile to stabilise the macroeconomy, therefore, it is not appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view. Technical progrees, futures market, and rural credit are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk.