ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW
Year:2004 | Volume:4 | Issue:3|Papers Count:8

Rate of Interest Variable as the price in the financial market is one of the important economic variables. This variable could be the factor of finance & economic instablity. The existing gap between official & unofficial financial market rate of interest in Iran"s economy and the politicians" attention to the financial and economic sectors of the country to this variable, facilitate the present research base. In this article, the effects of a change in interest rate on true economic variables are evaluated. The empirical studies on the basis of the achieved results, if the government with observing the sequence of freedom making efforts to increase the official market rate of interest, then it will move toward equilibrium and while diminishing the gap, a development ground for banking system credit and an increase in investment out of this credit would be prepared. As a result, the gap between the two official and unofficial rate of interest would diminish and ultimately there would be an increase in investment, employment and production.

In this article we argue that for the estimation of a valid econometrics relation, an economic theory is indispensable. In many cases, it has been observed that statistical relations have been introduced as an econometric model. The main idea is that an econometric model relays heavily on economic theory, and ignoring the relevant economic theory underlying the observed relationship frequently gives rise to a nonessential model specification. The data of National Account are based on economic theory. An econometric model which uses the National Account data has to follow the basic principles of economic models which are "econometric" theories. Therefore, it is argued that many so called theories published in economic journals do not follow economic theories and therefore are fundamentally flawed. We have used the demand for automobiles to clarify this point further.

This research is to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on non-oil exports, just in the similar way as it has been done for the rate of foreign exchange, rate of inflation and the real rate of GDP during 1350-1380 and also to foresee this effect for the coming years. In this paper three hypotheses and two predictions have been discussed which are as follows: The first hypothesis: The rate of foreign exchange has a direct effect on non-oil exports. The second hypothesis: The rate of inflation has an inverse effect on non-oil exports. The third hypothesis: the real GDP has a direct effect on non-oil exports. The first prediction (foreseeing): In the long run an increase in GNP causes an increase in non-oil exports. The second prediction (foreseeing): Having noticed the objectives and economic, social, political and cultural development plans of Iran, the most appropriate model which can predict the changes resulted from any one of the variables on the model during the next 10 years, is determinable. In this research one of the unstipulated approach in econometrics has been used. One of the VAR system advantages in the responsibility as against the strike of imposed unit (a standard deviation) from each one of variables of the system. In fact the ret1ective function acts on the basis of motivated mean process (MA) and on the basis of mathematics model patterns, the forseeing of non-oil export during the next ten years has been achieved. The results in the simple regression models show that during 1971-2001, GDP and foreign exchange rate have had direct effect on the non-oil exports and the rate of intation on the non-oil exports has been approximately effectless. The results of forseeing during 2001-2012 also show that GDP had no effect on the non-oil exports and in this regard simulating model has been provided, too.

The effects of financial development on the economic growth is one of the most important economic issues which has attracted a great deal of discussions and arguments. Some of the economists believe that through saving and investment level increament, economic development can pave the way for an appropriate ground for economic growth and another group of economists emphasize on the transfer of financial development effects on economic growth through its effects on utilization of resources and capital effeciency. The present study pays a close attention to the financial development effects on the economic growth in Iran. In this direction the period between 1338-1381 has been considered. From among different financial development indexes, credit ratio index given to the private sectors to the G.D.P by commercial and specialized banks is of the great importance which has been studied, too.

In this article the issue of bond sharing in the open market operation policy frame work, one of the central bank monetary policy, is discussed. The way of using this device in the economic depression condition and that of inflation, too, is the main issue that has been studied. The history of using bond sharing in Iran economy has been surveyed and then in an econometrics model the effects of bond sharing supply in the economic variables have been considered. Having noticed the small contribution of bond sharing sale and little appreciation of it in the whole money market, one can conclude that the supply of bond sharing in the money market of Iran economy has not played an appropriate role.

This essay has an experimental view on causality relation between public expenditures and tax revenues in Iran (1971-2003). Based on regression method (OLS) the variables must be constant, so in this essay according to ADF test the constancy of causal variables between public expenditures and tax revenues is shown. Consequently, the writers insist on bilateral relation between these two variables, by which each one can directly affect another one.

In the present article, the researchers try to examine the effect of the real exchange rate misalignment from the equilibrium path on Iran"s economic growth during the period extending from 1961 to 2001. For this purpose, three measures were utilized: difference between official and parallel exchange rates, theory of purchasing power parity and structural model for the measurement of index. The results obtained from the experimental studies show that the real exchange rate misalignment negatively affects Iran economic growth with no lags. Also, the results indicate that the index of real exchange rate misalignment, based on the theory of purchasing power parity, is more effective than other two measures.