Application of Simulation-Optimization Approaches to Assess the Effect of Climate and Management Scenarios on a Water Resource System

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Zeinoddini S.; ANVARI S.; ZAHMATKESH Z.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:14 | Issue:5 Page(s): 295-310

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Title

Application of Simulation-Optimization Approaches to Assess the Effect of Climate and Management Scenarios on a Water Resource System

Author(s)

Zeinoddini S. | ANVARI S. | ZAHMATKESH Z. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Rainfall-RunoffQ2

Climate ChangeQ2

IHACRESQ1

CropWatQ1

WEAPQ1

Abstract

Optimal allocation of water resources for supply and demand management with respect to effects of the Climate Change on water systems is essential. The purpose of this study is to simulate and optimize various components of Aharchay water system under the Climate Change conditions and to evaluate different climate and management scenarios. The effect of Climate Change on weather variables is investigated using the outputs of GCMs under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. For the period of 2011-2030 in the study area results showed a decrease in rainfall and an increase in minimum and maximum temperatures. For estimation of the inflow to Sattarkhan dam reservoir during the priod of 2015-2025, the IHACRES model is used. Results for R2 and RMSE criteria were obtained respectively as 0. 65 and 1. 21 for the calibration stage and 0. 56 and 1. 4 for the validation stage. Moreover, to estimate the water requirement under the Climate Change condition, evapotranspiration (ET) are calculated by CropWat model. For demand management in agricultural sector, optimization of soil and water allocation is carried out through linear and nonlinear programming models (LP, NLP) considering plants’ growth stage and its sensitivity to water stress. Water balance in the reservoir was simulated by WEAP under Climate Change scenarios aiming at allocating water to demand nodes. Considering the climate and management scenarios, the best option is then identified by AHP and the associated weights are calculated. Resalts demonstrated the use of optimal cultivating levels, new irrigation method and reducing per capita of the drinking water was selected as the best management scenario with the highest values of temporal and spatial reliability.

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APA: Copy

Zeinoddini, S., ANVARI, S., & ZAHMATKESH, Z.. (2019). Application of Simulation-Optimization Approaches to Assess the Effect of Climate and Management Scenarios on a Water Resource System. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(5 ), 295-310. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100200/en

Vancouver: Copy

Zeinoddini S., ANVARI S., ZAHMATKESH Z.. Application of Simulation-Optimization Approaches to Assess the Effect of Climate and Management Scenarios on a Water Resource System. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;14(5 ):295-310. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100200/en

IEEE: Copy

S. Zeinoddini, S. ANVARI, and Z. ZAHMATKESH, “Application of Simulation-Optimization Approaches to Assess the Effect of Climate and Management Scenarios on a Water Resource System,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 5 , pp. 295–310, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100200/en

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