Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Based on Social, Economic and Environmental Water Security Indicators

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ANSARI S.; MASSAH BAVANI A.R.; BAGHERI A.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:14 | Issue:5 Page(s): 237-253

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Based on Social, Economic and Environmental Water Security Indicators

Author(s)

ANSARI S. | MASSAH BAVANI A.R. | BAGHERI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate ChangeQ1

Water SecurityQ1

Multisite DownscalingQ1

Adaptation StrategiesQ1

Dynamic Integrated ModelQ1

Abstract

Climate Change effects on the hydrological system of the basin by changing amount of precipitation and temperature and, because of the interaction among systems, it would influence the environmental, economic, and social systems. The intensity of these unfavorable effects could be different given that vulnerability of the systems. Accordingly, presenting appropriate strategies is of importance for reduction of system vulnerability. Therefore, use of Water Security indicators considerably facilitates evaluating effective Adaptation Strategies. In this study, Tashk-Bakhtegan, with high interaction among its systems, was studied. Firstly, To simulate the effects of Climate Change, precipitation and temperature variable were extracted from the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (CanESM2 and MPI-ESMLR, GFDL-ESM2G) by the new scenario of greenhouse gases (RCP2. 6). To minimize uncertainty caused by the downscaling method, three methods of Multisite Downscaling (XDS, Sequential k-nearest neighbor imputation method (SKNN) and Statistical Downscaling Model– Decision Centric (SDSM– DC)) were used. The integrated dynamic model for the catchment scale was then prepared. The effects of the Climate Change scenario and its Adaptation Strategies were simulated in the basin for a future period. Finally, measures of Water Security indicators were identified based on social, economic and environmental dimensions during the base and future period. Moreover, the influences of appropriate strategies on the reduction of vulnerability have been evaluated on the basis of change in indicators. The results showed that to decrease the vulnerability of system in the future period it is necessary to increase the economic water productivity in agricultural sector by increasing the irrigation efficiency and to reduce the agricultural activity. It is also essential to increase industrial activity for the economic and social indemnity.

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APA: Copy

ANSARI, S., MASSAH BAVANI, A.R., & BAGHERI, A.. (2019). Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Based on Social, Economic and Environmental Water Security Indicators. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(5 ), 237-253. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100203/en

Vancouver: Copy

ANSARI S., MASSAH BAVANI A.R., BAGHERI A.. Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Based on Social, Economic and Environmental Water Security Indicators. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;14(5 ):237-253. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100203/en

IEEE: Copy

S. ANSARI, A.R. MASSAH BAVANI, and A. BAGHERI, “Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Based on Social, Economic and Environmental Water Security Indicators,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 5 , pp. 237–253, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100203/en

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