IRAN MORTALITY RATES USING LEE-CARTER MODEL: ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING

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KOMIJANI AKBAR; KOOSHESHI MAJID; NIAKAN LEILI

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Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH) Year:2014 | Volume:28 | Issue:4 (112) Page(s): 1-25

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Information Journal Paper

Title

IRAN MORTALITY RATES USING LEE-CARTER MODEL: ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING

Author(s)

KOMIJANI AKBAR | KOOSHESHI MAJID | NIAKAN LEILI | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

LIFE EXPECTANCYQ1

AGE SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATEQ2

LEE-CARTER MODELQ2

MORTALITY PREDICTION METHODSQ2

Abstract

Mortality Predictions can be made in two ways: First, indirect prediction through LIFE EXPECTANCY and then conversion to AGE SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATEs, and the second is direct prediction of mortality rates. In the first approach, it is assumed that after the transition period, which is generally a higher level of LIFE EXPECTANCY at birth of 70 years, LIFE EXPECTANCY increments decrease and that the increase will be negligible asymptotically. In the second approach, AGE SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATE is predicted to obtain LIFE EXPECTANCY using the direct method of life table construction. Logically, the correct and most plausible method of estimation and to predict LIFE EXPECTANCY is the second approach. In addition, usually the indirect method has larger odds and errors. The purpose of this paper is to use the second approach and predict mortality rates using Iranian mortality data in the Lee - Carter model for life insurance calculations. This model has two main factors: period and age. An important and difficult assumption of this model is the relative stability of age pattern of mortality. As various evaluations have shown, under these conditions error of the Lee - Carter model is less than any other method in direct predicting of mortality rates. For Iranian data, our assessments show that the estimation error is small, although this element is higher in some ages. However, hypothesis tests on the stability of the age pattern of mortality in Iran, is the subject of future research.

Cites

Trend forecasting of main groups of causes-of-death in Iran using the Lee-Carter model

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APA: Copy

KOMIJANI, AKBAR, KOOSHESHI, MAJID, & NIAKAN, LEILI. (2014). IRAN MORTALITY RATES USING LEE-CARTER MODEL: ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH), 28(4 (112)), 1-25. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100954/en

Vancouver: Copy

KOMIJANI AKBAR, KOOSHESHI MAJID, NIAKAN LEILI. IRAN MORTALITY RATES USING LEE-CARTER MODEL: ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH)[Internet]. 2014;28(4 (112)):1-25. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100954/en

IEEE: Copy

AKBAR KOMIJANI, MAJID KOOSHESHI, and LEILI NIAKAN, “IRAN MORTALITY RATES USING LEE-CARTER MODEL: ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE RESEARCH (SANAAT-E-BIMEH), vol. 28, no. 4 (112), pp. 1–25, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100954/en

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