Prediction of the Effective Factors on the Incidence of COVID-19 Disease in Hospitalized Patients using Statistical Modeling

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RAHIMI Z.; HEIDARIZADEH KH.; HEYDARI F.; KARAMI K.

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Yafteh Year:2022 | Volume:23 | Issue:5 Page(s): 87-98

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Prediction of the Effective Factors on the Incidence of COVID-19 Disease in Hospitalized Patients using Statistical Modeling

Author(s)

RAHIMI Z. | HEIDARIZADEH KH. | HEYDARI F. | KARAMI K. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

COVID-19

Effective factors

Prediction

Statistical modeling

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the well-being of different individuals and nations in terms of socioeconomic, psychological, and public health issues. Regarding the importance of predicting the peak outbreaks and incidence of COVID-19, this study aimed to predict factors that affect the incidence of COVID-19 pandemic in hospitalized patients admitted to a hospital in Khorramabad city of Iran, using a multivariate logistic regression model. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive-analytical study, the data from 4, 425 COVID-19 patients in the first peak of the disease, who were referred to the Shohada-ye Ashayer Hospital, Khorramabad, Iran, in 2020, were examined, from whom 2, 978 people had undergone COVID-19 test. Data were collected using a researcher-made checklist for variables and examination of patients’,daily records. Data analysis was performed using descriptive methods, multivariate logistic regression model, and backup vector machine method in the R software for the modeling of risk factors associated with the disease diagnosis. Results: The highest and lowest rates of incidence were observed in the age range of 40-49 (19%) and 19-10 years (1%). The age group 60-69 years accounted for 6% of the population with a mortality rate of 25%. Based on the implemented model, the most effective symptoms associated with the incidence of COVID-19 included age, fever, decreased level of consciousness, blood oxygen level, and a history of heart disease. Conclusion: The present study showed that identification of the effective variables of the disease led to the identification of high-risk individuals. This method can be used to prevent disease incidence and prevalence in high-risk groups and is a great help in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

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APA: Copy

RAHIMI, Z., HEIDARIZADEH, KH., HEYDARI, F., & KARAMI, K.. (2022). Prediction of the Effective Factors on the Incidence of COVID-19 Disease in Hospitalized Patients using Statistical Modeling. YAFTEH, 23(5 (90) ), 87-98. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1018777/en

Vancouver: Copy

RAHIMI Z., HEIDARIZADEH KH., HEYDARI F., KARAMI K.. Prediction of the Effective Factors on the Incidence of COVID-19 Disease in Hospitalized Patients using Statistical Modeling. YAFTEH[Internet]. 2022;23(5 (90) ):87-98. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1018777/en

IEEE: Copy

Z. RAHIMI, KH. HEIDARIZADEH, F. HEYDARI, and K. KARAMI, “Prediction of the Effective Factors on the Incidence of COVID-19 Disease in Hospitalized Patients using Statistical Modeling,” YAFTEH, vol. 23, no. 5 (90) , pp. 87–98, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1018777/en

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