MODELING AND FORECASTING METHOD IN SEAFOOD EXPORT ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

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KHODAPARAST SHIRAZI JALIL; SADEGHI ZAHRA

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Journal: Journal of Quantitative Economics Year:2013 | Volume:9 | Issue:4 (35) Page(s): 111-132

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Title

MODELING AND FORECASTING METHOD IN SEAFOOD EXPORT ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Author(s)

KHODAPARAST SHIRAZI JALIL | SADEGHI ZAHRA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

SEAFOOD EXPORT FORECASTSQ2

ECONOMETRIC MODELSQ2

ARIMAQ2

NEURAL NETWORK RBFQ2

ELMAN NEURAL NETWORKQ2

FEED FORWARD NEURAL NETWORKQ2

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to modeling and forecast exportsing of seafood in Iran. For this purpose, the method of collective self-explanatory time series moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks are used. To perform the study, monthly data for the period of 1995:05 to 2008:02 estimated from model training period 2009:03 to 2011:02 data to verify the predictive power of the model. In this study, several criteria including Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Root Mean Square Normalized Error (NRMSE) were used .The results show better performance of the neural network predicted non-linear statistical model ARIMA models and neural network structures studied neural networks Radial Basis Function (RBF) has the best performance in terms of error functions. Finally, for the two years 2012 and 2013 the amount of Iranian seafood export is predicted.

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APA: Copy

KHODAPARAST SHIRAZI, JALIL, & SADEGHI, ZAHRA. (2013). MODELING AND FORECASTING METHOD IN SEAFOOD EXPORT ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS (QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS REVIEW), 9(4 (35)), 111-132. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/110737/en

Vancouver: Copy

KHODAPARAST SHIRAZI JALIL, SADEGHI ZAHRA. MODELING AND FORECASTING METHOD IN SEAFOOD EXPORT ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS (QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS REVIEW)[Internet]. 2013;9(4 (35)):111-132. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/110737/en

IEEE: Copy

JALIL KHODAPARAST SHIRAZI, and ZAHRA SADEGHI, “MODELING AND FORECASTING METHOD IN SEAFOOD EXPORT ARIMA AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS,” JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS (QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS REVIEW), vol. 9, no. 4 (35), pp. 111–132, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/110737/en

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