Investigating the eleven-year trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Damghan and predicting the number of patients in the next five years

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kassaeian Seyed saeed; Ezati asar Mohamad; Taherian Mohammad hossein; Saleh Elahe

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Journal Paper

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Journal: Koomesh Year:2023 | Volume:25 | Issue:4 Page(s): 511-517

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Title

Investigating the eleven-year trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Damghan and predicting the number of patients in the next five years

Author(s)

kassaeian Seyed saeed | Ezati asar Mohamad | Taherian Mohammad hossein | Saleh Elahe | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

cutaneous leishmaniasisQ4

epidemiological studyQ4

time series modelQ4

Abstract

2Introduction: cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most important endemic diseases in Iran and the second most frequently transmitted arthropod-borne parasitic disease after malaria, which is seen in two kinds of urban and rural areas. Importantly, there are various focal points of cutaneous leishmaniasis disease in Iran. One of the most important focal points is Damghan. The study was conducted to determine the incidence and trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Damghan town during 2011–2021 and its forecast up to 2026. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 3222 definite cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis recorded from 2011 to 2021 by the vice-chancellor for health at Semnan University of Medical Sciences were entered. All statistical analyses were done using Minitab software version 14. SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 was used to predict the number of cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the next 5 years. Results: By investigating the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis from 2010 to 2021, an epidemic occurred in 2019. 3222 definite cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis, 1938 cases (60%) were men. 57% of the cases said that the place where they were bitten was the village. Interestingly, the most frequent age group was 15 years and older (86%). Hands and feet were the most common sites of ulcers. The highest disease prevalence was observed in September, October, and November. The number of predicted cases in the next five years was 2265. Conclusion: By investigating the eleven-year trend of this disease, and predicting the number of 2,265 people suffering from this disease in the next five years in the most optimistic state (do not have an epidemic like in 2019), it indicates that the policymakers of the health system should take control measures in prevention, Diagnosis, and treatment should pay attention to reduce the burden of the disease imposed on the individual and the health system and society.

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