S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011)

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TAYEBI SEYED KOMAIL; SHIRAZI HOMAYOUN; Sokhandani Narges

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Title

S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011)

Author(s)

TAYEBI SEYED KOMAIL | SHIRAZI HOMAYOUN | Sokhandani Narges | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

SQ2

CurveQ2

Cross CorrelationQ2

HarbergerQ2

LarsenQ2

Metzler effectQ2

Real exchange rateQ2

Abstract

National currency depreciation or appreciation has always been argued seriously among policymakers since changing in exchange rate could cause improvement or deficit in trade balance. These changes affect the trade volume of a country in both short-run and long-run. Long-run effects are recognized as the Marshall-Lerner condition, while short-run effects are analyzed by two concepts: J-Curve and S-Curve. In this study, the Cross Correlation has been calculated between trade balance and Real exchange rate by using bilateral trade data between Iran and 21 selected trading partners over the period 1992-2011 in order to explore the existence of S-Curve in Iran. Based on the results, there is an S-Shaped Curve for the Iranian trade relations with 14 major trading partners. However, this pattern does not match in relations with Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Armenia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Canada, US and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the empirical results confirm Harberger-Larsen-Metzler effect in Iran`s trade relations with most of its trading partners. According to the results obtained, changes in exchange rate leads to a temporary improvement in Iran’ s balance of payments, but this improvement reduces the exchange rate after a while.

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APA: Copy

TAYEBI, SEYED KOMAIL, SHIRAZI, HOMAYOUN, & Sokhandani, Narges. (2015). S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011). TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, 50(1 ), 147-167. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/11792/en

Vancouver: Copy

TAYEBI SEYED KOMAIL, SHIRAZI HOMAYOUN, Sokhandani Narges. S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011). TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI[Internet]. 2015;50(1 ):147-167. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/11792/en

IEEE: Copy

SEYED KOMAIL TAYEBI, HOMAYOUN SHIRAZI, and Narges Sokhandani, “S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011),” TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, vol. 50, no. 1 , pp. 147–167, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/11792/en

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