TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS AND THE BALANCE OF TRADE IN IRAN: THERE IS A HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER EFFECT

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ORYANI BAHARE; HEIDARY HASSAN; NEMATOLLAHI SOMAYEH

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Journal: Journal of Economic Research and Policies Year:2012 | Volume:20 | Issue:63 Page(s): 171-187

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Information Journal Paper

Title

TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS AND THE BALANCE OF TRADE IN IRAN: THERE IS A HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER EFFECT

Author(s)

ORYANI BAHARE | HEIDARY HASSAN | NEMATOLLAHI SOMAYEH | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

TRADE BALANCEQ2

TERMS OF TRADEQ3

HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER EFFECTQ2

STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTO REGRESSIONQ2

Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to study the impacts of terms-of-trade shocks on TRADE BALANCE in Iran, using the HLM (Harberger–Laursen–Metzler) Effect theory. According to HLM Effect, an exogenous temporary increase in terms-of-trade of a small open economy leads to a temporary improvement in that country's TRADE BALANCE, but this effect fades away as time passes by. To study whether any systematic patterns exist in the responses of the TRADE BALANCE, given to the terms of-trade shocks, a STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION (SVAR) model has been employed. The variables used are TERMS OF TRADE (unit value of export to unit value of import), Gross Domestic Product in constant prices and TRADE BALANCE (net export to Gross Domestic Product) during 1959-2010. Our results approve the idea that there exists an HLM Effect in Iran's Economy.

Cites

INVESTIGATE THE EFFECT STOCK PRICE SHOCKS ON THE VOLATILITY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT

References

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APA: Copy

ORYANI, BAHARE, HEIDARY, HASSAN, & NEMATOLLAHI, SOMAYEH. (2012). TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS AND THE BALANCE OF TRADE IN IRAN: THERE IS A HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER EFFECT. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES, 20(63), 171-187. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/89570/en

Vancouver: Copy

ORYANI BAHARE, HEIDARY HASSAN, NEMATOLLAHI SOMAYEH. TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS AND THE BALANCE OF TRADE IN IRAN: THERE IS A HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER EFFECT. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES[Internet]. 2012;20(63):171-187. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/89570/en

IEEE: Copy

BAHARE ORYANI, HASSAN HEIDARY, and SOMAYEH NEMATOLLAHI, “TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS AND THE BALANCE OF TRADE IN IRAN: THERE IS A HARBERGER-LAURSEN-METZLER EFFECT,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICIES, vol. 20, no. 63, pp. 171–187, 2012, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/89570/en

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