Analysis of the Effect of Financial Deepening on Economic Well-Being in Iran during the last half century

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Zaroki Shahryar; Ahmadi Ahmadreza; Mollatabar Firoozjaei Fatemeh; Zare Chamazkoti Mohammad Reza

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Journal: MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH LETTER Year:2024 | Volume:19 | Issue:41 Page(s): 79-114

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Title

Analysis of the Effect of Financial Deepening on Economic Well-Being in Iran during the last half century

Author(s)

Zaroki Shahryar | Ahmadi Ahmadreza | Mollatabar Firoozjaei Fatemeh | Zare Chamazkoti Mohammad Reza | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Economic Well-Being

Financial Deepening

ARDL

Iran

Abstract

In the present study, economic well-being was first calculated and estimated using the combined index of economic well-being based on four components of consumption flow, wealth accumulation, security and income distribution. Then, using the approach autoregressive distributed lag in the form of three models, the effect of financial deepening on economic well-being in the period of 1971 to 2022 was investigated and tested. In this regard, regarding financial deepening, three indicators were used in the present study and the research model was specified and estimated based on a separate indicator. The calculation of economic well-being index shows that the well-being index has been increasing from the first plan to the fifth plan. In such a way that it has reached from 20.9 in the first program to 60.3 in the fifth program. Also, after the third program, the welfare level was higher than the average of the entire period. The movement trend of financial deepening indicators also indicates an almost increasing trend. The long-run model estimation results show that all three indicators of financial deepening have a positive effect on economic well-being; Also, economic growth and income per capita have a positive effect and inflation has a negative effect on economic well-being. Another finding is that during the period before the revolution until the end of the war (1976 to 1989) and after the JCPOA, the level of economic well-being of Iran has significantly decreased.

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