EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISIS IN IRAN (KLR- SIGNALING APPROACH)

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SHAJARI PARASTOO; MOHEBI KHAH BITA

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Paper Information

Journal: Journal of Monetary and Banking Research Year:2010 | Volume:2 | Issue:4 Page(s): 115-152

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Information Journal Paper

Title

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISIS IN IRAN (KLR- SIGNALING APPROACH)

Author(s)

SHAJARI PARASTOO | MOHEBI KHAH BITA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

BANKING CRISISQ2

CURRENCY CRISISQ3

TWIN CRISISQ3

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMQ3

SIGNALING APPROACHQ3

Abstract

This paper uses the SIGNALING APPROACH to anticipate the banking and CURRENCY CRISIS in Iran and analyze the links between them. Banking system in Iran encountered BANKING CRISIS from 1384 (2005) till the second half of 1388 (2009) and balance of payment crisis has occurred in forth season of 1367 (1988), the early 1367 (1988), end of 1372 (1993) and early 1373 (1994), and first season of 1374 (1995) and the mid of 1377 (1998). These occurrences prove that there is no polarity between these two crises in Iran. We found find that index of stock market and the real interest rate are the most credible variables in predicting the BANKING CRISIS and also index of stock market; and real exchange rate are the most credible in predicting the CURRENCY CRISIS. Now Iran is in the transitive era of BANKING CRISIS. According to the common variables in predicting these two crises, the negligence of the policymakers to variation of these variables, could confront the country with the TWIN CRISIS.

Cites

ANALYZING FINANCIAL STABILITY WITH EMPHASIS ON BANKING SECTOR IN IRAN: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM APPROACH

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APA: Copy

SHAJARI, PARASTOO, & MOHEBI KHAH, BITA. (2010). EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISIS IN IRAN (KLR- SIGNALING APPROACH). MONEY AND ECONOMY (PERSIAN), 2(4), 115-152. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/168090/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAJARI PARASTOO, MOHEBI KHAH BITA. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISIS IN IRAN (KLR- SIGNALING APPROACH). MONEY AND ECONOMY (PERSIAN)[Internet]. 2010;2(4):115-152. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/168090/en

IEEE: Copy

PARASTOO SHAJARI, and BITA MOHEBI KHAH, “EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR CURRENCY AND BANKING CRISIS IN IRAN (KLR- SIGNALING APPROACH),” MONEY AND ECONOMY (PERSIAN), vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 115–152, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/168090/en

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