Nonlinear Modeling of Unemployment in the Iranian Economy

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Jafari Najafabadi Nahid; Zandi Fatemeh; Safavi Bijan; Khezri Mohammad

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: ACCOUNTING, FINANCE AND COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Year:2025 | Volume:3 | Issue:2 Page(s): 1-23

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Title

Nonlinear Modeling of Unemployment in the Iranian Economy

Author(s)

Jafari Najafabadi Nahid | Zandi Fatemeh | Safavi Bijan | Khezri Mohammad | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

unemployment

financial structure

monetary policy

financial development

Abstract

This study aims to model the nonlinear dynamics of unemployment in the Iranian economy and identify the most robust determinants using Bayesian, dynamic, and selective model averaging approaches. The research is applied in nature, covering the period 1992–2021. Fifty potential determinants of unemployment were identified across ten social, economic, political, and financial domains. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA), and Weighted Least Squares (WALS) techniques were employed to estimate the models. Based on predictive accuracy and error measures, the Bayesian model exhibited superior performance. Posterior probabilities and coefficients were calculated to determine non-fragile variables influencing unemployment. The analysis revealed 24 key variables significantly affecting unemployment, grouped into ten categories: social indicators (urbanization, poverty, human capital); real economic factors (service value-added, business environment index, Gini coefficient, capital formation, economic growth); nominal economic indicators (consumer inflation, oil revenues); openness indicators (KOF globalization index); labor market features (labor productivity, real wages, structural change index); fiscal policy (total taxes, public development expenditures); monetary policy (exchange rate, interest rate, liquidity); political factors (sanctions, privatization); financial development indicators (private sector credit share); and capital structure indices (banking sector and capital market development). Unemployment in Iran is driven by a complex interaction of structural, financial, monetary, and institutional variables. Policy interventions focused on strengthening financial systems, enhancing human capital, and improving institutional efficiency can effectively reduce unemployment and foster sustainable economic stability.

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