Explaining the Future Scenarios of Hydro Political Relations between Iran and Afghanistan in Common Water Resources with Emphasis on the Hirmand River

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Kaviani Rad Morad; Tak Rosta Maryam; Aftabi Zakeyeh

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC POLICY Year:2024 | Volume:9 | Issue:4 Page(s): 47-63

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Explaining the Future Scenarios of Hydro Political Relations between Iran and Afghanistan in Common Water Resources with Emphasis on the Hirmand River

Author(s)

Kaviani Rad Morad | Tak Rosta Maryam | Aftabi Zakeyeh | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Water security

Hydro Politics

Iran

Afghanistan and Hirmand River

Abstract

Shared water resources play a significant role in the relations between countries, especially in dry regions of the world. By looking at such a characteristic and identifier, the future research approach can be strategic in drawing the future relations of countries over shared water resources. In the current research, 68 factors affecting the hydro political relations between Iran and Afghanistan in the Hirmand river basin were identified using the Delphi method, and by using the Micmac software, the effective key factors were determined, and for each of the key factors, various modes were designed and in the form of a cross-key questionnaire. It was prepared and made available to the statistical community of the research Scenario Wizard software was used to identify possible scenarios. This software Three reported strong and possible scenarios by performing the required analysis. Examining the possible scenarios shows that the critical situation prevails over other possible situations. Therefore, the situation of hydro political relations between Iran and Afghanistan in Hirmand river became critical.

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