DESIGNING A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR SOCIAL CRISES

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ABTAHI S.H.; YAVARI A.; ESMAEILI A.

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Paper Information

Journal: Quarterly of Order & Security Guards Year:2012 | Volume:4 | Issue:4 Page(s): 1-33

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Title

DESIGNING A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR SOCIAL CRISES

Author(s)

ABTAHI S.H. | YAVARI A. | ESMAEILI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FORECASTINGQ2

SOCIAL CRISISQ2

CRISIS PREVENTIONQ2

IRI POLICEQ2

Abstract

At the present time, police is not aware about social changes in some matters and instead of FORECASTING social changes for preventing from their occurrence, confronting with cultural and political violently behaviors of different stratum of people and responsible. The lack of situation FORECASTING arise to making a decision in police which moreover than severe increasing of organizational expenses (human resources, budget and facilities) will deteriorated the conditions. This study has tried to focus on SOCIAL CRISIS and presented a model for their FORECASTING. With regards to this model, the most essential administrative organization of crisis control (police) will be capable of preventing from such crisis occurrences. This study is cross functional, applied, descriptive, compound, explorative and research. The results showed that among the important and effective factors on FORECASTING social changes, the majority of addressees had been concentrated on all items (time, matters, people and geography) alternatives. With regards to these results, the attitude is that the highest degree of security and social peace is established in the time that problem-solving had been upon discourse and consisted of total spectrum of social security and peace (software and holistic approach). 31 agents have considered as promotive agents of social security which increasing social welfare, expanding social justice and legal entity are settled in first to third rank for safeguarding interests of groups or special groups. At the end, the SOCIAL CRISIS FORECASTING model has presented for preventing from those via Naja with emphasis to problems, people, time and geography components.

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APA: Copy

ABTAHI, S.H., YAVARI, A., & ESMAEILI, A.. (2012). DESIGNING A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR SOCIAL CRISES. QUARTERLY OF ORDER AND SECURITY GUARDS, 4(4), 1-33. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/188849/en

Vancouver: Copy

ABTAHI S.H., YAVARI A., ESMAEILI A.. DESIGNING A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR SOCIAL CRISES. QUARTERLY OF ORDER AND SECURITY GUARDS[Internet]. 2012;4(4):1-33. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/188849/en

IEEE: Copy

S.H. ABTAHI, A. YAVARI, and A. ESMAEILI, “DESIGNING A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR SOCIAL CRISES,” QUARTERLY OF ORDER AND SECURITY GUARDS, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 1–33, 2012, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/188849/en

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