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Information Journal Paper

Title

A MODEL DESIGNED TO PREDICT THE PRICE OF GOLD USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATIN AND GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND PROVIDING COMBINED ALGORITHM

Pages

  59-83

Keywords

PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION (PSO)Q1
GENETIC ALGORITHM (GA)Q2

Abstract

 Nowadays, investing in gold markets is a major part of the economy of any country; that is why forecasting gold price is particularly important for the investors who ask for a less risk in their investments. In recent years, the classic method was used to predict the price of gold. While the gold market is a nonlinear system, the aim of this study is to predict the gold price in the international market with considering influencing factors (including silver price, US dollar index, crude oil price, inflation rate, interest rate, stock index, world-wide gold production, world-wide gold price, etc.) on it using the new innovative algorithms. In this study three scenarios proposed: gold price forecasting using birds fly algorithm, predicting the price of gold using a genetic algorithm and prediction of the gold price combining particle swarm optimisatin (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA). To this end, first, we use K-means clustering algorithm to cluster data into two clusters. Each cluster includes part of data collection and test sets. In the second phase, we develop a forecasting system for each cluster by developing particle swarm optimisatin algorithms (particle swarm optimisatin algorithm improvement using genetic algorithm) and, thereupon, we have developed a forecasting system for every cluster and ultimately by using developed predicting system for that cluster, predicting gold prices for the test set data in each cluster will be done. The first phase of data mining is accomplished by data mining software named Clementine and the executable codes of the second stage of algorithm are written in MATLAB programming language. The results showed that using of a combined model of flying birds and genetic model due to cover the weaknesses of each pattern and using their strengths in the predicted direction will make the prediction more accurate.

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    Cite

    APA: Copy

    AMIRHOSSEINI, ZAHRA, & DAVARPANAH, ATEFEH. (2016). A MODEL DESIGNED TO PREDICT THE PRICE OF GOLD USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATIN AND GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND PROVIDING COMBINED ALGORITHM. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT), 7(26), 59-83. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/197730/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    AMIRHOSSEINI ZAHRA, DAVARPANAH ATEFEH. A MODEL DESIGNED TO PREDICT THE PRICE OF GOLD USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATIN AND GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND PROVIDING COMBINED ALGORITHM. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT)[Internet]. 2016;7(26):59-83. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/197730/en

    IEEE: Copy

    ZAHRA AMIRHOSSEINI, and ATEFEH DAVARPANAH, “A MODEL DESIGNED TO PREDICT THE PRICE OF GOLD USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMISATIN AND GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND PROVIDING COMBINED ALGORITHM,” FINANCIAL ENGINEERING AND SECURITIES MANAGEMENT (PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT), vol. 7, no. 26, pp. 59–83, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/197730/en

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