RISK ANALYSIS & FINANCIAL EVALUATION IN POWER PLANT BOT

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NOURI FARAMARZ; MOHAMMADI PARASTOO; VASSAF ESMAEIL

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Paper Information

Journal: FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE OF SECURITY ANALYSIS (FINANCIAL STUDIES) Year:2015 | Volume:8 | Issue:26 Page(s): 79-101

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Information Journal Paper

Title

RISK ANALYSIS & FINANCIAL EVALUATION IN POWER PLANT BOT

Author(s)

NOURI FARAMARZ | MOHAMMADI PARASTOO | VASSAF ESMAEIL | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

POWER PLANT PROJECTSQ3

FINANCIAL EVALUATIONQ3

VALUE AT RISKQ2

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONQ3

BOTQ3

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is identifying and modeling the risks of the power plant BOT projects. Main identified risks in this study are project financing risk (equity ratio risk) and the risk of revenue of project. In order to model the risks, we used the Martingale Variance Model (MVM) for the revenue risk and the Triangular distribution function for the equity ratio risk. We applicated the MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONs method for obtaining the probability distribution function and critical values of the decision index (Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Debt Service Coverage Ratio). The one of thermal POWER PLANT PROJECTS data prepared by MAPNA, has been implemented in this study. The results of the simulation indicate that the risk of negative NPV of project is 13.41 percent and the risk of DSCR lower than 1.2 is 8.65 percent. Therefore, the sponsors suffering more risks than lenders in the studied project.

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APA: Copy

NOURI, FARAMARZ, MOHAMMADI, PARASTOO, & VASSAF, ESMAEIL. (2015). RISK ANALYSIS & FINANCIAL EVALUATION IN POWER PLANT BOT. FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE OF SECURITY ANALYSIS (FINANCIAL STUDIES), 8(26), 79-101. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/200117/en

Vancouver: Copy

NOURI FARAMARZ, MOHAMMADI PARASTOO, VASSAF ESMAEIL. RISK ANALYSIS & FINANCIAL EVALUATION IN POWER PLANT BOT. FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE OF SECURITY ANALYSIS (FINANCIAL STUDIES)[Internet]. 2015;8(26):79-101. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/200117/en

IEEE: Copy

FARAMARZ NOURI, PARASTOO MOHAMMADI, and ESMAEIL VASSAF, “RISK ANALYSIS & FINANCIAL EVALUATION IN POWER PLANT BOT,” FINANCIAL KNOWLEDGE OF SECURITY ANALYSIS (FINANCIAL STUDIES), vol. 8, no. 26, pp. 79–101, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/200117/en

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