FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS OF CHP SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

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BEHBAHANINIA A.; AMIDPOOR M.; TASALOTI B.; BEHBAHANINIA P.

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Journal: Journal of Management Future Research Year:2010 | Volume:21 | Issue:85 Page(s): 175-186

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Information Journal Paper

Title

FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS OF CHP SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

Author(s)

BEHBAHANINIA A. | AMIDPOOR M. | TASALOTI B. | BEHBAHANINIA P. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CHPQ2

COGENERATIONQ2

MONTE CARLOQ2

RISK ANALYSISQ3

PAYBACK PERIODQ3

Abstract

Combined Heat and power technologies are the most common methods in energy efficiency enhancement. Economic feasibility of such systems is complex because of uncertainties in input parameters. In this research MONTE CARLO method has been used in investment RISK ANALYSIS. Using electricity and energy price statistics of last years, their probability distributions were calculated and their correlations were surveyed.In this work two different strategies were applied. First strategy is based on current prices and the second is based on cost price and without subsidies. In both of them price difference exerted based on probability distributions that has been calculated using differential yearly prices of last years. Uncertainties of input parameters propagated end exerted through the model using MONTE CARLO Method and the results were gotten in the form of PAYBACK PERIOD, NPV and IRR probability distributions. The result showed that economy of COGENERATION plans will improve with increasing of energy prices. Also regular increasing in energy prices can guarantee financial gain of energy saving plans.

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APA: Copy

BEHBAHANINIA, A., AMIDPOOR, M., TASALOTI, B., & BEHBAHANINIA, P.. (2010). FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS OF CHP SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS. JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT FUTURES RESEARCH(JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH), 21(85), 175-186. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/204303/en

Vancouver: Copy

BEHBAHANINIA A., AMIDPOOR M., TASALOTI B., BEHBAHANINIA P.. FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS OF CHP SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS. JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT FUTURES RESEARCH(JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH)[Internet]. 2010;21(85):175-186. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/204303/en

IEEE: Copy

A. BEHBAHANINIA, M. AMIDPOOR, B. TASALOTI, and P. BEHBAHANINIA, “FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS OF CHP SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS,” JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT FUTURES RESEARCH(JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH), vol. 21, no. 85, pp. 175–186, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/204303/en

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