FORECASTING THE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS OF ISFAHAN FOR FIVE YEARS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

HONARI ELHAM; YAGHINI MASOUD; NADIMI MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Year:2016 | Volume:7 | Issue:1 (12) Page(s): 247-262

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

610

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

FORECASTING THE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS OF ISFAHAN FOR FIVE YEARS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Author(s)

HONARI ELHAM | YAGHINI MASOUD | NADIMI MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

GAS CONSUMPTION IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORSQ1

FORECASTINGQ2

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKQ2

EXHAUSTIVE PRUNEQ1

DYNAMICQ1

RADIAL BASIS FUNCTIONQ1

Abstract

The largest share of natural gas consumption in the country is allocated to the residential and commercial sectors. Therefore, the prediction of the consumption rate of these two sectors is very important for planning in the National Iranian Gas Company. This paper develops an ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK model to forecast the natural gas consumption for residential and commercial sectors in the city of Isfahan. In order to find an appropriate architecture, three different methods named DYNAMIC method, RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION network method, and EXHAUSTIVE PRUNE method are investigated. The actual gas consumption data for the previous 10 years are used to predict consumption of the next five years. Factors of population, climate, total number of clients and gas prices are included in the prediction model. In this study, the neural network structures are compared with each other and with other traditional methods such as regression and time series methods. To evaluate the proposed model, we compare the results of three different architectures of neural network considering training times and accuracy of neural networks on the test data set. In addition, the neural networks have been compared with other well-known prediction methods such as auto-regressive integrated moving average and regression. The results indicate that the ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK with EXHAUSTIVE PRUNE architecture is the most efficient and accurate model. The generated model is applied to predict residential and commercial gas consumption for five years. To the best of our knowledge, this method has not been used in the literature for predicting gas consumption in Esfahan.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

HONARI, ELHAM, YAGHINI, MASOUD, & NADIMI, MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN. (2016). FORECASTING THE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS OF ISFAHAN FOR FIVE YEARS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, 7(1 (12) ), 247-262. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/217538/en

Vancouver: Copy

HONARI ELHAM, YAGHINI MASOUD, NADIMI MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN. FORECASTING THE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS OF ISFAHAN FOR FIVE YEARS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2016;7(1 (12) ):247-262. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/217538/en

IEEE: Copy

ELHAM HONARI, MASOUD YAGHINI, and MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN NADIMI, “FORECASTING THE NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS OF ISFAHAN FOR FIVE YEARS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS,” PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT, vol. 7, no. 1 (12) , pp. 247–262, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/217538/en

Related Journal Papers