An Investigation on Economic Factors’ Nonlinear Impacts on Crime in Iran

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FAALJOU HAMID REZA; AMIRI HOSSEIN; MOLABAHRAMI AHMAD

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Journal: MAJLIS & RAHBORD Year:2017 | Volume:24 | Issue:90 Page(s): 101-124

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Title

An Investigation on Economic Factors’ Nonlinear Impacts on Crime in Iran

Author(s)

FAALJOU HAMID REZA | AMIRI HOSSEIN | MOLABAHRAMI AHMAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Unemployment RateQ1

Income InequalityQ2

CrimeQ2

Opportunity EffectsQ1

Motivation EffectsQ1

Markov-Switching ModelQ1

Abstract

This study examines the effects of “ unemployment, Income Inequality, inflation, urbanization, annual growth rate of divorce, and annual growth rate of budget allocated for judicial system” on Crime in Iran, based on a non-linear Markov-Switching Model used for annual time series data during 1984 to 2013. The results show that there is a non-linear relationship between growth rate of Crimes and the mentioned explanatory variables. In the other hand, results based on a regression estimation show that the rate of unemployment, Income Inequality, inflation, the extent of urbanization, and the growth rate of divorce, in both zero phase (low Crime rate) and one phase (high growth rate of Crime), have significant positive effects on growth rate of Crimes. The results show that the urbanization, unemployment and inflation at zero phase (low Crime rate periods) have the highest impact on growth rates of Crime, as every one percent increase in the urbanization, unemployment and inflation lead to 1. 46, 0. 99 and 0. 97 percent increase in growth rate of Crime in Iran, respectively. In the phase one (low Crime rate periods), inflation, urbanization and the growth rate of divorce have highest impact on Crime in Iran, as every one percent increase in the three variables leads to 2. 54, 2. 30 and 2. 15 percent increase in growth rate of Crime in Iran. According to the results of an estimation in terms of Markov-Switching Model, probability of the zero phase is equal to 50%, and probability of transition from zero phase to one phase is equal to 48 percent. According to goodness of fit tests, Markov-Switching Model is suitable for modeling the mentioned relationships.

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APA: Copy

FAALJOU, HAMID REZA, AMIRI, HOSSEIN, & MOLABAHRAMI, AHMAD. (2017). An Investigation on Economic Factors’ Nonlinear Impacts on Crime in Iran. MAJLIS & RAHBORD, 24(90 ), 101-124. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/224741/en

Vancouver: Copy

FAALJOU HAMID REZA, AMIRI HOSSEIN, MOLABAHRAMI AHMAD. An Investigation on Economic Factors’ Nonlinear Impacts on Crime in Iran. MAJLIS & RAHBORD[Internet]. 2017;24(90 ):101-124. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/224741/en

IEEE: Copy

HAMID REZA FAALJOU, HOSSEIN AMIRI, and AHMAD MOLABAHRAMI, “An Investigation on Economic Factors’ Nonlinear Impacts on Crime in Iran,” MAJLIS & RAHBORD, vol. 24, no. 90 , pp. 101–124, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/224741/en

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