Water Crisis and Inter-Provincial Immigration in Iran: An Application of SGMM-DPD Model

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NADEMI YOUNES; Jalili Kamjoo Seysd Parviz

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Journal: MAJLIS & RAHBORD Year:2020 | Volume:27 | Issue:101 Page(s): 5-32

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Title

Water Crisis and Inter-Provincial Immigration in Iran: An Application of SGMM-DPD Model

Author(s)

NADEMI YOUNES | Jalili Kamjoo Seysd Parviz | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ImmigrationQ2

GroundwaterQ1

Surface WaterQ1

SGMM-DPD-SDMQ1

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the effects of changes in Surface Water resources and extraction of Groundwater resources on net migration in 28 Iranian provinces during 2003-2016 through using the SGMM-DPD model within the framework of Arelano-Bond/ Blundell-Bond estimators. Results of the (estimator) model have been shown that the extraction of Groundwater resources has a nonlinear and threshold effect on inter-provincial migration. That means, before the threshold level for per capita of 3343 cubic meters, the extraction of water through strengthening agricultural sector has a negative impact on migration but after abnormal extraction of Groundwater resources and exceeding over the threshold level for per capita of 3343 cubic meters also increasing the probability of drought risk and famine of Groundwater resources, this variable has a positive effect on net migration. Thus, the threshold level of Groundwater resources extraction for per capita of 3, 343 cubic meters is considered as a risk to widespread inter-provincial Immigration. But due to the acute (surface) water resources shortage to supply water in the provinces which cannot be provided an enough incentive for Immigration, the variability of Surface Water resources has not a significant impact on Immigration.

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APA: Copy

NADEMI, YOUNES, & Jalili Kamjoo, Seysd Parviz. (2020). Water Crisis and Inter-Provincial Immigration in Iran: An Application of SGMM-DPD Model. MAJLIS & RAHBORD, 27(101 ), 5-32. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/224839/en

Vancouver: Copy

NADEMI YOUNES, Jalili Kamjoo Seysd Parviz. Water Crisis and Inter-Provincial Immigration in Iran: An Application of SGMM-DPD Model. MAJLIS & RAHBORD[Internet]. 2020;27(101 ):5-32. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/224839/en

IEEE: Copy

YOUNES NADEMI, and Seysd Parviz Jalili Kamjoo, “Water Crisis and Inter-Provincial Immigration in Iran: An Application of SGMM-DPD Model,” MAJLIS & RAHBORD, vol. 27, no. 101 , pp. 5–32, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/224839/en

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