AGE COMPOSITION, THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH, AND THE FUTURE POPULATION OF IRAN

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Journal: NAMEH-YE OLUM-E EJTEMAI Year:2000 | Volume:NEW | Issue:15 Page(s): 47-66

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Title

AGE COMPOSITION, THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH, AND THE FUTURE POPULATION OF IRAN

Author(s)

SARA"I H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

KEY WORDS: AGE COMPOSITIONQ4

REPLACEMENT LEVELQ4

THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTHQ4

THE FUTURE POPULATION OF IRANQ4

THE EFFECT OF AGE COMPOSITION THROUGH FERTILITYQ4

THE EFFECT OF AGE COMPOSITION THROUGH MORTALITY.Q4

Abstract

In this research, after setting up three demographic scenarios, the effect of the population age composition of Iran (1996) on the future size of Iran population is measured, decomposed, and scientifically investigated. In all these scenarios, it is first assumed that the fertility immediately declines to the REPLACEMENT LEVEL. But, in contrast with the first scenario which assumes the probable changing trend in mortality, in the second one it is assumed that the mortality would remain constant at the level being current in the base year (1996). However, in the third scenario, the mortality is assumed to rise immediately in the base year to the level reached in a stationary condition and thereafter it remains constant. Hence, the predicted results were as they have been expected to be before. For instance, in the first scenario before reaching a stationary condition, Iran population would increase up to 78% . In spite of "NRR = 1", such an increase is usually conceived and described through the subtle concept of THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH. Thus, in order to obtain a clear and better understanding of the effect of the population age composition in Iran, this effect should be decomposed in its two components: I. The effect of the rising birth rate and an increase in the number of births. II. The effect of the declining death rate and a decrease in the number of deaths. By decomposition, it is also shown that more than two third of the effect of population age composition has been through the reduction of the death rate and a decrease in the number of deaths. In other words, only less than one third of the effect of population age composition has been through the rising birth rate and an increase in the number of births.

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APA: Copy

SARA"I, H.. (2000). AGE COMPOSITION, THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH, AND THE FUTURE POPULATION OF IRAN. NAMEH-YE OLUM-E EJTEMAI, NEW(15), 47-66. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/2399/en

Vancouver: Copy

SARA"I H.. AGE COMPOSITION, THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH, AND THE FUTURE POPULATION OF IRAN. NAMEH-YE OLUM-E EJTEMAI[Internet]. 2000;NEW(15):47-66. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/2399/en

IEEE: Copy

H. SARA"I, “AGE COMPOSITION, THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH, AND THE FUTURE POPULATION OF IRAN,” NAMEH-YE OLUM-E EJTEMAI, vol. NEW, no. 15, pp. 47–66, 2000, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/2399/en

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