Simulation of Population Changes in Iran using Basic Agent-Based Model

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AZARFAR AMIR; AZAR ADEL; Kalantari Seyede Zahra

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN POPULATION STUDIES JOURNAL Year:2017 | Volume:3 | Issue:1 Page(s): 7-38

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Title

Simulation of Population Changes in Iran using Basic Agent-Based Model

Author(s)

AZARFAR AMIR | AZAR ADEL | Kalantari Seyede Zahra | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Agent-Based simulation

Population projection

Population Structure

Age at marriage

Iran

Abstract

Estimating and projecting population size in future is utmost important for governments, because majority of government programs and plans have a close relationship with population and its dynamics. The aim of this paper is to project the trend of population changes and Population Structure over the next 50 years using Agent-Based simulation model. The model enables to analyse different scenarios of population changes, provide as strcutural model of changes, modeling with heterogeneous entities and provide more realistic results because of probabilistic modeling. Simulation results was compared to projection results under different scenarios conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran. The results showed a significant correlation between the two which indicates the validity of simulation model. The results also indicated that Age at marriage does not have a significant correlation with the trend of population growth in next 15 year, while in longer term, there will be a significant correlation Analysis of the model indicate that Agent-Based simulation can create probabilistic, heterogeneous with policy analysis features analytical framework which can simulate annual data with minimum cost and in a virtual mean.

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APA: Copy

AZARFAR, AMIR, AZAR, ADEL, & Kalantari, Seyede Zahra. (2017). Simulation of Population Changes in Iran using Basic Agent-Based Model. IRANIAN POPULATION STUDIES JOURNAL, 3(1 ), 7-38. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/268033/en

Vancouver: Copy

AZARFAR AMIR, AZAR ADEL, Kalantari Seyede Zahra. Simulation of Population Changes in Iran using Basic Agent-Based Model. IRANIAN POPULATION STUDIES JOURNAL[Internet]. 2017;3(1 ):7-38. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/268033/en

IEEE: Copy

AMIR AZARFAR, ADEL AZAR, and Seyede Zahra Kalantari, “Simulation of Population Changes in Iran using Basic Agent-Based Model,” IRANIAN POPULATION STUDIES JOURNAL, vol. 3, no. 1 , pp. 7–38, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/268033/en

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