The Wild-Cards and Driver Forces of Iran-US Relations in 2029

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Aryanmanesh Mohammad; Javanshiri Ahmad; Modirshanechi Mohsen

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF IRAN FUTURES STUDIES Year:2019 | Volume:4 | Issue:1 Page(s): 117-140

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Title

The Wild-Cards and Driver Forces of Iran-US Relations in 2029

Author(s)

Aryanmanesh Mohammad | Javanshiri Ahmad | Modirshanechi Mohsen | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Iran

America

Wild Cards

Driver Forces

Forecasting

Abstract

purpose: This study aimed at using Futures methods to identify the Wild Cards and Driver Forces of the Iran-US relations in 1408 horizon. The purpose to identify the Wild Cards is to prevent future surprise since Wild Cards are events with low probability of occurrence but high impacts. The purpose of identifying the Driver Forces of the Iran-US relations was identifying the key factors in this issue, which can cause diverse futures in the two countries. Method: The methodology used in the present study was descriptive-analytical and data collection in theoretical part was through bibliographic sources and, in analytical part, through questionnaires. The data were analyzed by SPSS and Mic Mac. Findings: According the findings of the present study, the military attack to Iran, the transformation in the two countries' definition of human rights, the role of Iran's geo-culture, the future role of the leadership structure in Iran, the role of pressure and extremist factions in Iran, and the impact of Iran's role in resolving the Syrian case were considered as probable Wild Cards. Conclusion: Regarding the identified Driver Forces, they are categorized in eight topics: the role of intergovernmental bodies, countries disturbing the relations, the roles of leaders of the two countries, the future the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capability and Iran's missile program, the role of geography of the two countries, and the historical background of the two countries' relations.

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APA: Copy

Aryanmanesh, Mohammad, Javanshiri, Ahmad, & Modirshanechi, Mohsen. (2019). The Wild-Cards and Driver Forces of Iran-US Relations in 2029. JOURNAL OF IRAN FUTURES STUDIES, 4(1 ), 117-140. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/270366/en

Vancouver: Copy

Aryanmanesh Mohammad, Javanshiri Ahmad, Modirshanechi Mohsen. The Wild-Cards and Driver Forces of Iran-US Relations in 2029. JOURNAL OF IRAN FUTURES STUDIES[Internet]. 2019;4(1 ):117-140. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/270366/en

IEEE: Copy

Mohammad Aryanmanesh, Ahmad Javanshiri, and Mohsen Modirshanechi, “The Wild-Cards and Driver Forces of Iran-US Relations in 2029,” JOURNAL OF IRAN FUTURES STUDIES, vol. 4, no. 1 , pp. 117–140, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/270366/en

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