DEVELOPING A FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL TO ASSESS THE SCHEDULE RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (CASE: TRACK RENEWAL PROJECT IN IRAN RAILWAY ADMINISTRATION)

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BARADARANKAZEMZADE REZA; SHARIFMOUSAVI SEYYED MAHDI

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Journal: Management Research in Iran Year:2011 | Volume:15 | Issue:1 (70) Page(s): 109-133

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Information Journal Paper

Title

DEVELOPING A FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL TO ASSESS THE SCHEDULE RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (CASE: TRACK RENEWAL PROJECT IN IRAN RAILWAY ADMINISTRATION)

Author(s)

BARADARANKAZEMZADE REZA | SHARIFMOUSAVI SEYYED MAHDI | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CONSTRUCTION PROJECTSQ2

FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODELQ2

RISK MANAGEMENTQ2

Abstract

Calculation of Derivations from every objective of the project is very important for both contractors and employers. Time overrun is the function of all project risks. A tool that can assess the risk levels and estimate the derivations from the planed duration is very useful for contractors. This research tries to propose a new methodology to determine the schedule risk of CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS and the total time overrun. This methodology uses influence diagram to construct the risk model and fuzzy risk assessment system to estimate time overrun for every activity. Then the information of FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL is used by scheduling the soft wares such as MSP or Primavera to calculate the time overrun of the project. This model has been used in one of the track renewal projects of Iran Railway Administration.The model was validated by using the estimated data produced by model and the real data of the activities’ duration. Then the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was calculated for the activities and the project. MAPE of the activities was equal to 10.75% and the estimated duration of project was equal to 105.24 time unit. In comparison with the real duration of project (which was equal to 113 time units and MAPE for the whole project was equal to 6.7%), it can be concluded that FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL has remarkable accuracy to be used in CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS.

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APA: Copy

BARADARANKAZEMZADE, REZA, & SHARIFMOUSAVI, SEYYED MAHDI. (2011). DEVELOPING A FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL TO ASSESS THE SCHEDULE RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (CASE: TRACK RENEWAL PROJECT IN IRAN RAILWAY ADMINISTRATION). MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES), 15(1 (70)), 109-133. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/357156/en

Vancouver: Copy

BARADARANKAZEMZADE REZA, SHARIFMOUSAVI SEYYED MAHDI. DEVELOPING A FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL TO ASSESS THE SCHEDULE RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (CASE: TRACK RENEWAL PROJECT IN IRAN RAILWAY ADMINISTRATION). MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES)[Internet]. 2011;15(1 (70)):109-133. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/357156/en

IEEE: Copy

REZA BARADARANKAZEMZADE, and SEYYED MAHDI SHARIFMOUSAVI, “DEVELOPING A FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL TO ASSESS THE SCHEDULE RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS (CASE: TRACK RENEWAL PROJECT IN IRAN RAILWAY ADMINISTRATION),” MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES), vol. 15, no. 1 (70), pp. 109–133, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/357156/en

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