The Impacts of Climate Change on The Risk of Cold Stress in Autumn Crop Pattern (Case Study: Tropical and Subtropical areas of Kerman province)

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Bayatani Fateme; Fallah Ghalhari Gholamabas; KARAMI MOKHTAR; Taeei Samiromi Javad

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Journal: JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT HAZARDS Year:2020 | Volume:9 | Issue:24 Page(s): 63-78

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Title

The Impacts of Climate Change on The Risk of Cold Stress in Autumn Crop Pattern (Case Study: Tropical and Subtropical areas of Kerman province)

Author(s)

Bayatani Fateme | Fallah Ghalhari Gholamabas | KARAMI MOKHTAR | Taeei Samiromi Javad | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

climate changeQ1

general circulation modelQ1

exponential microscaleQ1

potatoQ1

KermanQ1

Abstract

Global warming leads to changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climatic variables. These impacts affect the risk of thermal stresses in cropping systems. This study was carried out to evaluate the effect of climate change on the cold stress variation of potato plants in the tropical regions of Kerman province. To this end, changes in the occurrence of cold stress in the observation data of Jiroft, Kahnouj, and Manoajan stations were analyzed(from 1981 to 2005) and the future period (from 2011to2100). The future course data, using general circulation model CanESM2 with respect torcp26, rcp45 and RCP 85 scenarios were quantified by SDSM software. For this, the climactic indices were used to evaluate the changes in cold stress of potatoes by the tolerance thresholds of potatoes and based on the average of long-term climate data and the probability of its occurrence during the growth period. The results showed that in the Jiroft station, the probability of occurrence of early and late temperature below 5º decreased to 83% and 63% respectivelydintheKahnoj and Manoajan stations the probability of occurrence of early and late temperature below 5º in the future period decreased and increased, respectively. Also, the date of the beginning and end of cold stress was shifted to the beginning and end of the cold season. The statistical analysis of data indicated that the days of cold stress (5≤ T≤ 0) will increase from 2011to2040 in the Jiroft station, and from 2071to2100 in the Manojan station but it showed a decreasing in the Kahnouj station. The results show that the days with freezing stress will increase in the future in the Jiroft, Kahnoj, and Manojan stations, as a result, date of early and late cold stress will happen 10 days earlier and 14 days later compared to long term average of climate in the study area.

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APA: Copy

Bayatani, Fateme, Fallah Ghalhari, Gholamabas, KARAMI, MOKHTAR, & Taeei Samiromi, Javad. (2020). The Impacts of Climate Change on The Risk of Cold Stress in Autumn Crop Pattern (Case Study: Tropical and Subtropical areas of Kerman province). JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT HAZARDS, 9(24 ), 63-78. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/363330/en

Vancouver: Copy

Bayatani Fateme, Fallah Ghalhari Gholamabas, KARAMI MOKHTAR, Taeei Samiromi Javad. The Impacts of Climate Change on The Risk of Cold Stress in Autumn Crop Pattern (Case Study: Tropical and Subtropical areas of Kerman province). JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT HAZARDS[Internet]. 2020;9(24 ):63-78. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/363330/en

IEEE: Copy

Fateme Bayatani, Gholamabas Fallah Ghalhari, MOKHTAR KARAMI, and Javad Taeei Samiromi, “The Impacts of Climate Change on The Risk of Cold Stress in Autumn Crop Pattern (Case Study: Tropical and Subtropical areas of Kerman province),” JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT HAZARDS, vol. 9, no. 24 , pp. 63–78, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/363330/en

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