assessing the pattern of Trade in goods in the Persian Gulf region and Scenarios for Future

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MOSHREFI RASSAM; Ahmadifard Mosayeb

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Journal: Journal of Program & Development Research Year:2019 | Volume:1 | Issue:1 Page(s): 207-243

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Title

assessing the pattern of Trade in goods in the Persian Gulf region and Scenarios for Future

Author(s)

MOSHREFI RASSAM | Ahmadifard Mosayeb | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Trade Gravity

Pattern Persian Gulf

Panel Data

Scenario planing

Abstract

The aim of This study is to estimate the flow of trade in the Persian Gulf region using Panel Data regression over the period 2000-2015, and to simulate the regions’ trade flow until 2025. Based on the estimated results, the role of variables such as the price of crude oil, GDP, oil exports was more important, than the role of variables such as exchange rate, population and production in the region's trading partners in explaining the flow of trade. Based on the simulations in different scenarios, the volume of trade in the Persian Gulf region is forecasted between 1, 500 and 1, 900 billion dollars up to 2016 horizon. On the other hand, the trade balance of the region will be between 450 and 650 billion dollars, between 44 and 58 percent of total oil exports. In general, this research indicates that the dependence of the region's trade flow on the exports of oil, so that any change in the position of oil in the global market affects the region’ commercial development. On the other hand, the existence of this volume of business turnover in the region can be considered as the basis for logistic planning to create employment and income.

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APA: Copy

MOSHREFI, RASSAM, & Ahmadifard, Mosayeb. (2019). assessing the pattern of Trade in goods in the Persian Gulf region and Scenarios for Future. JOURNAL OF PROGRAM AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, 1(1 ), 207-243. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/368355/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOSHREFI RASSAM, Ahmadifard Mosayeb. assessing the pattern of Trade in goods in the Persian Gulf region and Scenarios for Future. JOURNAL OF PROGRAM AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;1(1 ):207-243. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/368355/en

IEEE: Copy

RASSAM MOSHREFI, and Mosayeb Ahmadifard, “assessing the pattern of Trade in goods in the Persian Gulf region and Scenarios for Future,” JOURNAL OF PROGRAM AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, vol. 1, no. 1 , pp. 207–243, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/368355/en

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