Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization

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Hashemi Hooshmand; mohamadi Taimor; Khalili Farzeneh; ASGARI FARID

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Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2019 | Volume:15 | Issue:61 Page(s): 1-28

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Title

Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization

Author(s)

Hashemi Hooshmand | mohamadi Taimor | Khalili Farzeneh | ASGARI FARID | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

state-space modelQ1

Kalman filter techniqueQ2

price liberalizationsQ1

time –Q2

varying parameterQ1

oil productsQ1

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate oil products demand by the state-space model, taking into account the implications for price liberalization using the Kalman filter technique in the framework of a time-varying pattern. For this purpose, we use the data of the Energy Balance Sheet and the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company during the period of 1994-2017. Our model results indicate that the price elasticity of oil products varies during the studied period. Using three different scenarios, we consistently find that a 10% annual increase in oil product prices during the sixth development plan, leads to a decrease in the consumption of kerosene and fuel oil, while gasoline and gas oil consumption increases. We thus observe that while kerosene and fuel oil demand responds as expected to rising prices, the price sensitivity of demand for gasoline and gas oil declines. We observe that while the absolute value of the price elasticity of gasoline has fallen unexpectedly, the price elasticity of kerosene, fuel oil and gas oil have increased. Therefore, in order to encourage gasoline consumers to reduce their demand, the speed of price liberalization at the end of the sixth development plan has to be more than at the beginning of the program. However, the rate of price increase for kerosene, gas oil and fuel oil products has to decrease at the end of the program.

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APA: Copy

Hashemi, Hooshmand, mohamadi, Taimor, Khalili, Farzeneh, & ASGARI, FARID. (2019). Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 15(61 ), 1-28. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/374824/en

Vancouver: Copy

Hashemi Hooshmand, mohamadi Taimor, Khalili Farzeneh, ASGARI FARID. Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2019;15(61 ):1-28. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/374824/en

IEEE: Copy

Hooshmand Hashemi, Taimor mohamadi, Farzeneh Khalili, and FARID ASGARI, “Estimating Oil Products Demand by State-space Model and Relevant Guidelines for Price Liberalization,” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 15, no. 61 , pp. 1–28, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/374824/en

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