NEW APPROACHES IN FORECASTING USING NEURO-FUZZY NETWORKS (CASE STUDY: THE CRUDE OIL PRICE)

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RAMEZANIAN MOHAMMAD RAHIM; RAMEZANPOUR ESMAEL; POURBAKHSH SAYEED HAMED

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Journal: Management Research in Iran Year:2011 | Volume:15 | Issue:3 (72) Page(s): 149-169

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Information Journal Paper

Title

NEW APPROACHES IN FORECASTING USING NEURO-FUZZY NETWORKS (CASE STUDY: THE CRUDE OIL PRICE)

Author(s)

RAMEZANIAN MOHAMMAD RAHIM | RAMEZANPOUR ESMAEL | POURBAKHSH SAYEED HAMED | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

NEURAL NETWORKQ3

NERU-FUZZY NETWORKQ2

PREDICATEQ2

CRUDE OIL PRICEQ2

Abstract

Our world is a rapidly changing world. So it is very important for the survival of organizations to know what lies ahead in the future, how much demand is there for their products and for what price? We cannot afford big changes unless we are able to predict the future. The application of predictability science in management has been studied in this research. With the increasing progress of science, the use of new methods and application of new intelligent technologies have also increased. In this research, new methods and algorithms such as NEURAL NETWORKs and fuzzy logic have been explained and the application of their combination in predictability has been studied. Various methods such as Moving Average Method, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Linear Trend, Combined Functional Trend, and Exponential Process were used to make predictions. The results obtained from these methods were compared with the those obtained from the NERU-FUZZY NETWORKs method using 6 error measurement criteria. It was found that the NERU-FUZZY NETWORKs method yielded better results, and the correspondence of data (R2 coefficient) for the NERU-FUZZY NETWORKs was about 90 percent. The data used in this research were related to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the years 1970-2000.

Cites

PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION BY USING A FUZZY HYBRID DELPHI-VIKOR APPROACH

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APA: Copy

RAMEZANIAN, MOHAMMAD RAHIM, RAMEZANPOUR, ESMAEL, & POURBAKHSH, SAYEED HAMED. (2011). NEW APPROACHES IN FORECASTING USING NEURO-FUZZY NETWORKS (CASE STUDY: THE CRUDE OIL PRICE). MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES), 15(3 (72)), 149-169. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/375167/en

Vancouver: Copy

RAMEZANIAN MOHAMMAD RAHIM, RAMEZANPOUR ESMAEL, POURBAKHSH SAYEED HAMED. NEW APPROACHES IN FORECASTING USING NEURO-FUZZY NETWORKS (CASE STUDY: THE CRUDE OIL PRICE). MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES)[Internet]. 2011;15(3 (72)):149-169. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/375167/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMAD RAHIM RAMEZANIAN, ESMAEL RAMEZANPOUR, and SAYEED HAMED POURBAKHSH, “NEW APPROACHES IN FORECASTING USING NEURO-FUZZY NETWORKS (CASE STUDY: THE CRUDE OIL PRICE),” MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN (MODARES HUMAN SCIENCES), vol. 15, no. 3 (72), pp. 149–169, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/375167/en

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