AN ARCHITECTURE DESIGN MODEL FOR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ITS APPLICATION TO FORECASTING MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF GAS OIL IN IRAN

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AMIN NASERI MOHAMMAD REZA; KOUCHAKZADEH A.

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Journal: MODARRES HUMAN SCIENCES Year:2009 | Volume:12 | Issue:4 (TOME 59) (MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN) Page(s): 69-95

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Title

AN ARCHITECTURE DESIGN MODEL FOR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ITS APPLICATION TO FORECASTING MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF GAS OIL IN IRAN

Author(s)

AMIN NASERI MOHAMMAD REZA | KOUCHAKZADEH A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ARCHITECTURE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKQ3

DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTQ3

FORECASTINGQ3

GAS OILQ3

Abstract

A critical step to develop artificial neural networks that has considerable effect on network performance is designing architecture of neural networks. In designing the architecture of networks, generally, the number of hidden layers, number of neurons in each layer and transfer functions are determined. Most researchers often use trial and error approach and/or ignore interactive effects between the factors of design. In this research, a model is presented based on the DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT (DOE) for optimal architecture of neural networks. The proposed model was applied to determine the optimal architecture of neural network for FORECASTING the monthly consumption of GAS OIL of Iran. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, using the common method of trial and error was used and advantages of the proposed model were shown. In addition, to compare the performance of neural networks by statistical methods, two models based on regression and ARIMA were designed. Comparison of the FORECASTING results obtained by neural networks and the statistical methods proved that the proposed model produced better forecasts in all performance criteria.

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APA: Copy

AMIN NASERI, MOHAMMAD REZA, & KOUCHAKZADEH, A.. (2009). AN ARCHITECTURE DESIGN MODEL FOR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ITS APPLICATION TO FORECASTING MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF GAS OIL IN IRAN. MODARRES HUMAN SCIENCES, 12(4 (TOME 59) (MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN)), 69-95. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/6817/en

Vancouver: Copy

AMIN NASERI MOHAMMAD REZA, KOUCHAKZADEH A.. AN ARCHITECTURE DESIGN MODEL FOR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ITS APPLICATION TO FORECASTING MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF GAS OIL IN IRAN. MODARRES HUMAN SCIENCES[Internet]. 2009;12(4 (TOME 59) (MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN)):69-95. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/6817/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMAD REZA AMIN NASERI, and A. KOUCHAKZADEH, “AN ARCHITECTURE DESIGN MODEL FOR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ITS APPLICATION TO FORECASTING MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF GAS OIL IN IRAN,” MODARRES HUMAN SCIENCES, vol. 12, no. 4 (TOME 59) (MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN IRAN), pp. 69–95, 2009, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/6817/en

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