Development of a Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast Annual Natural Gas Consumption in Iran

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Shafiei Shahran; BARADARAN VAHID

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Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2020 | Volume:15 | Issue:63 Page(s): 243-267

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Title

Development of a Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast Annual Natural Gas Consumption in Iran

Author(s)

Shafiei Shahran | BARADARAN VAHID | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Grey ModelQ1

Regression TechniqueQ1

Markov ChainQ2

Design of ExperimentsQ1

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of annual gas consumption of the country plays an important role in energy supply strategies and policy making in this area. Markov Chain grey regression model is considered to be a superior model for analyzing and forecasting annual gas consumption. This model Markov is a combination of the Markov Chain and grey regression models. According to this model, the residual errors generated from the grey regression model are divided into a number of equal portions. We will add the calculated error terms to the values obtained through the grey regression in order to increase its accuracy. We use the box-bench design to calculate the optimal value of the error term which produces the most accurate forecasts when using the Markov Chain grey regression model. The experimental study of the forecasting of natural gas consumption indicates that the proposed Markov Chain grey regression model is more accurate than they grey or conventional Markov Chain regression models.

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APA: Copy

Shafiei, Shahran, & BARADARAN, VAHID. (2020). Development of a Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast Annual Natural Gas Consumption in Iran. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 15(63 ), 243-267. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/376045/en

Vancouver: Copy

Shafiei Shahran, BARADARAN VAHID. Development of a Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast Annual Natural Gas Consumption in Iran. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2020;15(63 ):243-267. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/376045/en

IEEE: Copy

Shahran Shafiei, and VAHID BARADARAN, “Development of a Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast Annual Natural Gas Consumption in Iran,” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 15, no. 63 , pp. 243–267, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/376045/en

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