Assessment and Prediction of Incidence Trend of Stomach, Colorectal and Esophagus Cancers Using Time-Series Models in Kurdistan, West of Iran

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

PARVAREH MARYAM; REZAEI SATAR; ROSHANI DAEM; GHADERI EBRAHIM; NOURI BIJAN

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Scientific Journal of Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences Year:2020 | Volume:25 | Issue:3 (107) Page(s): 72-86

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

501

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

Assessment and Prediction of Incidence Trend of Stomach, Colorectal and Esophagus Cancers Using Time-Series Models in Kurdistan, West of Iran

Author(s)

Keywords

Stomach CancerQ2

Colorectal CancerQ1

Esophagus CancerQ3

Time SeriesQ1

KurdistanQ2

Abstract

Background and Aim: The cancers of the gastrointestinal tract, because of their high prevalence and fatality, are of great importance in most countries like Iran. In terms of prevalence, stomach, esophagus and Colorectal Cancers in Iran are ranked first, second and eighth, respectively. Therefore, this study aimed to model the incidence of the frequency of new cases of these cancers and their prediction in Kurdistan province, Iran. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the incidence of stomach, esophagus and Colorectal Cancers were analyzed from April 2000 to March 2017. In order to model Time Series data of the cancers, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with Box-Jenkins approach were applied. After determining the suitable models, the frequencies of new cases for the cancers were predicted until March 2020. Data analysis was performed using R-3. 4. 2 statistical software package. Results: A total of 6439 gastrointestinal cancers were recorded during the study period, among which stomach, esophagus and Colorectal Cancers had the highest frequencies with 2548, 1722 and 989 new cases, respectively. The best fited model for stomach, esophagus and Colorectal Cancers were SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1)4, SARIMA (3, 1, 0) (0, 0, 1)4 and ARIMA (0, 1, 1), respectively. It is predicted that the incidence pattern of these cancers have an upward trend with moderate slope by March 2020. Conclusion: The high incidence of stomach, colorectal and Esophagus Cancer, as well as their increasing trend in the predicted time can be a serious alarm. Therefore, in order to prevent and reduce the frequency of these cancers, it is vital to design and implement the effective programs such as screening, especially in high risk groups, early diagnosis of the cancers, increasing public awareness and controlling the risk factors to prevent and reduce of these increasing trends.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

PARVAREH, MARYAM, REZAEI, SATAR, ROSHANI, DAEM, GHADERI, EBRAHIM, & NOURI, BIJAN. (2020). Assessment and Prediction of Incidence Trend of Stomach, Colorectal and Esophagus Cancers Using Time-Series Models in Kurdistan, West of Iran. SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL OF KURDISTAN UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, 25(3 (107) ), 72-86. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/383292/en

Vancouver: Copy

PARVAREH MARYAM, REZAEI SATAR, ROSHANI DAEM, GHADERI EBRAHIM, NOURI BIJAN. Assessment and Prediction of Incidence Trend of Stomach, Colorectal and Esophagus Cancers Using Time-Series Models in Kurdistan, West of Iran. SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL OF KURDISTAN UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES[Internet]. 2020;25(3 (107) ):72-86. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/383292/en

IEEE: Copy

MARYAM PARVAREH, SATAR REZAEI, DAEM ROSHANI, EBRAHIM GHADERI, and BIJAN NOURI, “Assessment and Prediction of Incidence Trend of Stomach, Colorectal and Esophagus Cancers Using Time-Series Models in Kurdistan, West of Iran,” SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL OF KURDISTAN UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES, vol. 25, no. 3 (107) , pp. 72–86, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/383292/en

Related Journal Papers