Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran

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SHAHRAKI MAHDI; GHADERI SIMIN

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Journal Paper

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Journal: Payavard Salamat Year:2020 | Volume:14 | Issue:4 Page(s): 284-296

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran

Author(s)

SHAHRAKI MAHDI | GHADERI SIMIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ForecastingQ1

SupplyQ2

DemandQ2

Physician ShortageQ1

Health ResourcesQ1

Vector Error Correction ModelQ1

Abstract

Background and Aim: Physicians as human capital and resources are one of the main components of health production. The imbalance of physician Supply and Demand affects the health and economics. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate and forecast the Supply and Demand of physicians working in Iranian Medical Universities. Materials and Methods: This was a descriptive-analytical study and was conducted at national level for Iran during 1991-2017. The statistical population was physicians working in Iranian Medical Universities. ARIMA method was used to estimate and forecast physician Supply and Vector Error Correction Models was used for physician Demand. The data was annual time series extracted from the statistical yearbooks of the Statistical Center of Iran and the World Bank database. Eviews 10 software was used to estimate the models. Results: The results showed that physician Demand in Iran was affected by Gross Domestic Product, age structure and hospital beds, and according to the forecast of Supply and Demand of physicians, we will face Physician Shortage in the years 2018-2030. Conclusion: In the coming years, Iran is facing Physician Shortage. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt policies to increase physician capacity in Medical Universities and to increase strong incentives to retain physicians and prevent their migration.

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APA: Copy

SHAHRAKI, MAHDI, & GHADERI, SIMIN. (2020). Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran. PAYAVARD-SALAMAT, 14(4 ), 284-296. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/415100/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAHRAKI MAHDI, GHADERI SIMIN. Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran. PAYAVARD-SALAMAT[Internet]. 2020;14(4 ):284-296. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/415100/en

IEEE: Copy

MAHDI SHAHRAKI, and SIMIN GHADERI, “Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran,” PAYAVARD-SALAMAT, vol. 14, no. 4 , pp. 284–296, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/415100/en

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