THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND CHINA'S EXPORTS: A CAUSAL AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

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HOA TRAN VAN; TANG ZONGMING

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Journal: International Journal of Business and Development Studies Year:2010 | Volume:2 | Issue:1 Page(s): 3-26

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Title

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND CHINA'S EXPORTS: A CAUSAL AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

Author(s)

HOA TRAN VAN | TANG ZONGMING | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CHINA'S EXPORTS AND THEIR DRIVERS

EXCHANGE RATES AND VOLATILITY

WORLD DEMAND

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND POLICY REFORM

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING AND FORECASTS

ECONOMIC AND TRADE POLICY

Abstract

Recent strong growth of China's exports has elevated the country to a rising global economic power and caused geo-political concern to policy-makers in the country and its trading partners world-wide. What are the determinants of this growth, how has it affected major economies in ASEAN (World Bank, 2009) in particular, and what kind of evidence-based responses are required and appropriate? The paper focuses on the first issue and introduces an endogenous trade model (ETM) and, using historical data, empirically investigates the causes of China's exports in recent years for regional trade policy analysis. The ETM (see Tran Van Hoa, 2004, 2008a for earlier applications) is a system approach and contains improved structural and modelling features, in comparison to conventional gravity theory, panel regression and CGE/GTAP, to provide more credible outcomes and policy options in the sense of Friedman (1953) and Kydland (2006). Significantly, the ETM also incorporates multiple structural changes in the form of crises and policy reforms to accommodate and manage recent economic and financial developments in regional and global economies. Policy options and choice recommendations are, finally, suggested for debate and analysis.

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APA: Copy

HOA, TRAN VAN, & TANG, ZONGMING. (2010). THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND CHINA'S EXPORTS: A CAUSAL AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, 2(1), 3-26. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/580124/en

Vancouver: Copy

HOA TRAN VAN, TANG ZONGMING. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND CHINA'S EXPORTS: A CAUSAL AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES[Internet]. 2010;2(1):3-26. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/580124/en

IEEE: Copy

TRAN VAN HOA, and ZONGMING TANG, “THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND CHINA'S EXPORTS: A CAUSAL AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS,” INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 3–26, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/580124/en

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