QUANTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUNDWATER MODEL OF KAZEROUN AQUIFER PLAIN WITH THE AID OF STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICS

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CHITSAZAN M.; ABEDINI M.J.; SALEK MANSOUR

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Journal: SHAHID CHAMRAN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE Year:2008 | Volume:NEW SERIES | Issue:19 (SECTION B) Page(s): 17-33

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Title

QUANTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUNDWATER MODEL OF KAZEROUN AQUIFER PLAIN WITH THE AID OF STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICS

Author(s)

CHITSAZAN M. | ABEDINI M.J. | SALEK MANSOUR | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

QUANTIFICATIONQ3

UNCERTAINTYQ3

MODFLOW-2000Q3

KAZEROUN AQUIFERQ3

STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICSQ3

Abstract

Inverse modeling usefulness in achieving management goals and obtaining optimal and precise parameters has been suggested to study and evaluate UNCERTAINTY to improve models' efficiency and to estimate correct hydrogeological parameters. In this study, based on geology of the study area, ground-water flow model of Kazeroun plain's aquifer was prepared, the automatic calibration method was evaluated and the effect of sensivity analysis and the analysis of statistical diagnostic on quantifying uncertainly were considered. After determining the goal and analyzing the input data of the model, preparing the conceptual model was begun. Then, according to the capabilities of MODFLOW-2000 in authorizing valuable statistics as outputs and also using nonlinear regression in optimizing hydrogeological parameters, the modeling procedure was accomplished taking into consideration (contemplating) the QUANTIFICATION of UNCERTAINTY of the data and model parameters. During the model design, the study area was divided into a grid with regular cells, and the initial and boundary conditions were determined. After assigning the unknown hydrogeological parameters, the automatic calibration procedure was used to determine their optimal values, and to increase the quality of the calibration, the calculated sensitivities, correlation coefficient, and confidence intervals were used. Sensitivity analysis process and evaluating confidence intervals have been used in the QUANTIFICATION of the model and parameter uncertainties. These STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICS cannot be obtained using trial-and-error calibration method, and therefore, the model which. would be driven through this method, would have a low reliability.

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APA: Copy

CHITSAZAN, M., ABEDINI, M.J., & SALEK, MANSOUR. (2008). QUANTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUNDWATER MODEL OF KAZEROUN AQUIFER PLAIN WITH THE AID OF STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICS. SHAHID CHAMRAN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, NEW SERIES(19 (SECTION B)), 17-33. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/58031/en

Vancouver: Copy

CHITSAZAN M., ABEDINI M.J., SALEK MANSOUR. QUANTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUNDWATER MODEL OF KAZEROUN AQUIFER PLAIN WITH THE AID OF STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICS. SHAHID CHAMRAN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE[Internet]. 2008;NEW SERIES(19 (SECTION B)):17-33. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/58031/en

IEEE: Copy

M. CHITSAZAN, M.J. ABEDINI, and MANSOUR SALEK, “QUANTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN GROUNDWATER MODEL OF KAZEROUN AQUIFER PLAIN WITH THE AID OF STATISTICAL DIAGNOSTICS,” SHAHID CHAMRAN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, vol. NEW SERIES, no. 19 (SECTION B), pp. 17–33, 2008, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/58031/en

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