The Foresight of the Customs Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Scenario Approach

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Babanejad Bagher; TAHERI DEMNEH MOHSEN; Shojaei Samere; Gorji mohammad Bagher

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ORGANZATIONS MANAGEMENT Year:2021 | Volume:9 | Issue:1 (33) Page(s): 123-144

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Information Journal Paper

Title

The Foresight of the Customs Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Scenario Approach

Author(s)

Babanejad Bagher | TAHERI DEMNEH MOHSEN | Shojaei Samere | Gorji mohammad Bagher | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Foresight

Cross Impact Analysis

Scenario

Customs Organization

Abstract

One of the major challenges facing organizations is the expansion of factors affecting the designing of a favorable vision. Exploring environment trends to understand the future trend requires an approach beyond the usual methods of forecasting and planning, Foresight allows us to have narratives and believable images of the emerging vision from the insights gained. The purpose of this study is to present a picture of the future of the Customs Organization in the form of possible and compatible Scenarios. In this mixed method research, in order to achieve the goals, data collection was done through the study of Mega-trends using scanning method and based on PESTEL analysis. Prioritization of primary variables was done through telephone and e-mail survey of experts to find the most effective factors on the Customs Organization, which led to the design of a questionnaire with 30 factors. While determining the effectiveness of the matrix in an expert panel, data analysis in Micmac software led to the identification of four driving forces. The drivers in the 9-mode Cross Impact Analysis of the questionnaire, in a range of favorable to unfavorable conditions and according to the degree of importance and probability of occurrence, were surveyed by experts and analyzed with Wizard Scenario software. Findings show that the two Scenarios of the current situation and the adaptive change will be the most compatible future Scenarios of customs. Familiarity with the narration of each Scenario and comparing their desirability can be a basis for planning future measures so that the Iranian Customs can be a flexible, transparent, and accountable organization in order to protect the society, the health of the goods and to ensure the satisfaction of the beneficiaries.

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APA: Copy

Babanejad, Bagher, TAHERI DEMNEH, MOHSEN, Shojaei, Samere, & Gorji, mohammad Bagher. (2021). The Foresight of the Customs Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Scenario Approach. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ORGANZATIONS MANAGEMENT, 9(1 (33) ), 123-144. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/664755/en

Vancouver: Copy

Babanejad Bagher, TAHERI DEMNEH MOHSEN, Shojaei Samere, Gorji mohammad Bagher. The Foresight of the Customs Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Scenario Approach. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ORGANZATIONS MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2021;9(1 (33) ):123-144. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/664755/en

IEEE: Copy

Bagher Babanejad, MOHSEN TAHERI DEMNEH, Samere Shojaei, and mohammad Bagher Gorji, “The Foresight of the Customs Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Scenario Approach,” JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ORGANZATIONS MANAGEMENT, vol. 9, no. 1 (33) , pp. 123–144, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/664755/en

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