A Disease Outbreak Prediction Model Using Bayesian Inference: A Case of Influenza

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Mirarabshahi Atefeh Sadat; KARGARI MEHRDAD

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Journal: International Journal of Travel Medicine and Global Health Year:2019 | Volume:7 | Issue:3 Page(s): 91-98

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Title

A Disease Outbreak Prediction Model Using Bayesian Inference: A Case of Influenza

Author(s)

Mirarabshahi Atefeh Sadat | KARGARI MEHRDAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Disease Outbreak

Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm

Influenza

Abstract

Introduction: One major problem in analyzing epidemic data is the lack of data and high dependency among the available data, which is due to the fact that the epidemic process is not directly observable. Methods: One method for epidemic data analysis to estimate the desired epidemic parameters, such as disease transmission rate and recovery rate, is data intensification. In this method, unknown quantities are considered as additional parameters of the model and are extracted using other parameters. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is extensively used in this field. Results: The current study presents a Bayesian statistical analysis of Influenza outbreak data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo data intensification that is independent of probability approximation and provides a wider range of results than previous studies. A method for estimating the epidemic parameters has been presented in a way that the problem of uncertainty regarding the modeling of dynamic biological systems can be solved. The proposed method is then applied to fit an SIR-like flu transmission model to data from 19 years leading up to the seventh week of the 2017 incidence of Influenza. Conclusion: The proposed method showed an improvement in estimating the values of all the parameters considered in the study. The results of this study showed that the distributions are significant and the error ranges are real.

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APA: Copy

Mirarabshahi, Atefeh Sadat, & KARGARI, MEHRDAD. (2019). A Disease Outbreak Prediction Model Using Bayesian Inference: A Case of Influenza. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE AND GLOBAL HEALTH, 7(3), 91-98. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/779686/en

Vancouver: Copy

Mirarabshahi Atefeh Sadat, KARGARI MEHRDAD. A Disease Outbreak Prediction Model Using Bayesian Inference: A Case of Influenza. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE AND GLOBAL HEALTH[Internet]. 2019;7(3):91-98. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/779686/en

IEEE: Copy

Atefeh Sadat Mirarabshahi, and MEHRDAD KARGARI, “A Disease Outbreak Prediction Model Using Bayesian Inference: A Case of Influenza,” INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE AND GLOBAL HEALTH, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 91–98, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/779686/en

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