EVALUATE J48 ALGORITHM FOR THE PREDICTION BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES AND COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS

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TABATBABAI MASUMEH; JAVID DARUSH; MOAZAMI GOODARZI MUHAMMAD REZA

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Seminar Paper

Paper Information

Seminar: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT CULTURE
Year:2015 | Issue:2

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Title

EVALUATE J48 ALGORITHM FOR THE PREDICTION BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES AND COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS

Author(s)

TABATBABAI MASUMEH | JAVID DARUSH | MOAZAMI GOODARZI MUHAMMAD REZA

Keywords

BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

ALGORITHM J48

MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON NEURAL NETWORKS

LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS

Abstract

THE MAIN GOAL OF THIS STUDY IS EVALUATE J48 ALGORITHM FOR THE PREDICTION BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES LISTED IN TEHRAN STOCK EXCHANGE AND COMPARISON WITH WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS. FINANCIAL RATIOS ARE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES AND HEALTHY AND BANKRUPT COMPANIES ARE DEPENDENT VARIABLES. STATISTICAL POPULATION OF THE RESEARCH IS INFORMATION ABOUT FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF COMPANIES LISTED IN TEHRAN STOCK EXCHANGE DURING 2009-2013.BANKRUPT COMPANIES GROUP WAS SELECTED BASED ON ARTICLE 141 OF COMMERCIAL LAW AND THE HEALTHY GROUP WAS SELECTED BASED ON PROFITABILITY CRITERIA. THE SAMPLE STUDIED CONSISTED OF 72 COMPANIES. OF WHICH 30 COMPANIES ARE BANKRUPT AND THE REST NOT BANKRUPT. AFTER STATISTICAL ALGORITHM J48 WITH 91.66% ACCURACY, MULTI-LAYER NEURAL NETWORK WITH AN ACCURACY OF 91.95%, WITH AN ACCURACY OF 85% LOGIT MODEL AND THE PROBIT MODEL WAS PERFORMED WITH 88% ACCURACY. J48 ALGORITHM AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MORE CONSERVATIVE OF THE TWO METHODS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE ACTED. SIMILARLY ACCORDING TO THE CHART, FOR BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELING VARIABLE ROA AS A PRIORITY, VARIABLE CURRENT RATIO IN SECONDARY AND AND VARIABLE CURRENT ASSETS ARE SOLD IN THE THIRD PRIORITY.

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APA: Copy

TABATBABAI, MASUMEH, JAVID, DARUSH, & MOAZAMI GOODARZI, MUHAMMAD REZA. (2015). EVALUATE J48 ALGORITHM FOR THE PREDICTION BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES AND COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT CULTURE. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/909671/en

Vancouver: Copy

TABATBABAI MASUMEH, JAVID DARUSH, MOAZAMI GOODARZI MUHAMMAD REZA. EVALUATE J48 ALGORITHM FOR THE PREDICTION BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES AND COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS. 2015. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/909671/en

IEEE: Copy

MASUMEH TABATBABAI, DARUSH JAVID, and MUHAMMAD REZA MOAZAMI GOODARZI, “EVALUATE J48 ALGORITHM FOR THE PREDICTION BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES AND COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, LOGIT AND PROBIT BINARY MODELS,” presented at the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT CULTURE. 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/909671/en

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