FORECASTS BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AND MARKOV DROUGHT TO CROPS IN THE PLAINS OF SISTAN

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HONAR TORAJ; NIKO M.R.; ZAND PARSA S.; SIASAR HADI

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Seminar Paper

Paper Information

Seminar: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Year:2016 | Issue:2

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Title

FORECASTS BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AND MARKOV DROUGHT TO CROPS IN THE PLAINS OF SISTAN

Author(s)

HONAR TORAJ | NIKO M.R. | ZAND PARSA S. | SIASAR HADI

Keywords

DROUGHT

SPI

MARKOV CHAIN

THE CITY OF SISTAN

Abstract

DROUGHT IS A NATURAL DISASTER CAUSED BY LACK OF HUMIDITY DUE TO THE DECREASE IN RAINFALL COMPARED TO NORMAL CONDITIONS OCCUR. SUCCESSFUL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND PROPER USE OF WATER RESOURCES IS SUBJECT TO RECOGNITION OF THIS NATURAL DISASTER. SINCE DROUGHT IS INEVITABLE, IT CAN BE DAMAGED BY DROUGHT IN DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF AT LEAST USED. HENCE THE IMPORTANCE OF DROUGHT FORECASTING IN THE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES. THE SURVEY DATA OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION DROUGHT ZABOL CITY OF ZABOL IN THE PERIOD (1976-2015) AND THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI), THE TWELVE-MONTH TIME SCALE IS USED. THEN THE MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY OF BALANCE OF WET, DRY AND NORMAL ANNUAL SPI WAS USED. THE RESULTS SHOWED THAT THE PROBABILITY OF BALANCE OF WET, DRY AND NORMAL IN ZABOL STATION RESPECTIVELY 2.7, 35.14 AND 62.16 PERCENT, WHICH MEANS THAT IN MOST OF THE REGION'S NORMAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS, IN WHILE MORE THAN THIRTEEN TIMES THE RISK OF DROUGHT IS LIKELY WET.

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APA: Copy

HONAR, TORAJ, NIKO, M.R., ZAND PARSA, S., & SIASAR, HADI. (2016). FORECASTS BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AND MARKOV DROUGHT TO CROPS IN THE PLAINS OF SISTAN. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND NATURAL RESOURCES. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/909689/en

Vancouver: Copy

HONAR TORAJ, NIKO M.R., ZAND PARSA S., SIASAR HADI. FORECASTS BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AND MARKOV DROUGHT TO CROPS IN THE PLAINS OF SISTAN. 2016. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/909689/en

IEEE: Copy

TORAJ HONAR, M.R. NIKO, S. ZAND PARSA, and HADI SIASAR, “FORECASTS BASED ON THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AND MARKOV DROUGHT TO CROPS IN THE PLAINS OF SISTAN,” presented at the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING AND NATURAL RESOURCES. 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/909689/en

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