Evaluating 10-year Changes in Relative Risk of Smear Positive Tuberculosis in Iran Using Spatial Modelling: 2010-2019

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Babaahmadi Azar; Moradi Soraya; MARAGHI ELHAM; YOUNESPOUR SHIMA

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Journal: Jundishapur Scientific Medical Journal Year:2021 | Volume:20 | Issue:3 Page(s): 246-255

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Title

Evaluating 10-year Changes in Relative Risk of Smear Positive Tuberculosis in Iran Using Spatial Modelling: 2010-2019

Author(s)

Babaahmadi Azar | Moradi Soraya | MARAGHI ELHAM | YOUNESPOUR SHIMA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Relative risk

Smear positive tuberculosis

Iran

Spatial modelling

Abstract

Background and Objectives According to the importance of preventing tuberculosis, it is necessary to identify areas with a high Relative risk. Subjects and Methods This is an ecological study. To estimate the Relative risk of SPTB (smear-positive tuberculosis), the number of SPTB cases and at-risk population for each province was extracted from the data set of the Tuberculosis and Leprosy Department of the Ministry of Health. Relative risk (RR) estimation was obtained using Log-Normal and BYM models. Deviance information criterion was used to compare the performance of the models. Analyses were done in WinBUGS1. 4. 3 and ArcGIS10. 8 software. Results The highest Relative risk was seen in 2010 for Sistan and Baluchestan Province as RR = 4. 02 with (95%CI: 3. 73-4. 32) and the lowest for Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province with RR= 0. 22 [95%CI: 0. 13-0. 35). The highest Relative risk in Sistan and Baluchestan Province in 2020 was RR= 3. 77 (95%CI: 3. 45-4. 01), and the lowest Relative risk was in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province with RR= 0. 21 (95% CI: 0. 10-0. 36). Conclusion The risk of tuberculosis was generally high in provinces bordering countries with high rates of tuberculosis and provinces with humid climates. The movement of populations from high-risk provinces and high-burden countries can be one of the main challenges in controlling tuberculosis. However, the pattern of risk reduction in provinces bordering high-risk countries shows relatively good progress in TB control programs and reminds us of the need for detailed studies on the pattern of increase in other provinces.

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APA: Copy

Babaahmadi, Azar, Moradi, Soraya, MARAGHI, ELHAM, & YOUNESPOUR, SHIMA. (2021). Evaluating 10-year Changes in Relative Risk of Smear Positive Tuberculosis in Iran Using Spatial Modelling: 2010-2019. JUNDISHAPUR SCIENTIFIC MEDICAL JOURNAL, 20(3 ), 246-255. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/950094/en

Vancouver: Copy

Babaahmadi Azar, Moradi Soraya, MARAGHI ELHAM, YOUNESPOUR SHIMA. Evaluating 10-year Changes in Relative Risk of Smear Positive Tuberculosis in Iran Using Spatial Modelling: 2010-2019. JUNDISHAPUR SCIENTIFIC MEDICAL JOURNAL[Internet]. 2021;20(3 ):246-255. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/950094/en

IEEE: Copy

Azar Babaahmadi, Soraya Moradi, ELHAM MARAGHI, and SHIMA YOUNESPOUR, “Evaluating 10-year Changes in Relative Risk of Smear Positive Tuberculosis in Iran Using Spatial Modelling: 2010-2019,” JUNDISHAPUR SCIENTIFIC MEDICAL JOURNAL, vol. 20, no. 3 , pp. 246–255, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/950094/en

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