Wheat, as a major grain, is considered as a significant product in
household consumption. Study of the wheat price patterns in the world
market is of paramount importance, both for exporters and importers
of this product.
Seasonality of harvest is a genuine phenomenon affecting. the market
for agricul tural products. Wheat Market is no exception, as far as
seasonality is concerned.
This paper is intended to study the various aspects of seasonality in
the world wheat Market. Initially the phenomenon of seasonality is
introduced, and its impact on the market is monitored and the nature
of its interaction with major factors of the market is analysed.
Subsequently, a Review of economic literature is presented which
includes methods of econometric modeling of this phenomenon.
An autoregressive model is presented using the monthly data of 21
years for Nine different varieties of wheat exported from five major
producers, namely Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, and
The United States.
Findings of the study in this model indicate the existence of the
seasonality pattern in wheat prices and reveal the significance of it in
the market clearance procedure through the time. A (Q– Statistics) test
reveals the non- stationary nature of data, which is in accord with
theoretical findings of the study.