Commodity Price Volatility and Fiscal Balance in Commodity-Exporting Countries

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Rezagholizadeh Mahdieh; Aghaei Majid; Zaghi Saroukolaee Mehrdad

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES Year:2024 | Volume:13 | Issue:2 Page(s): 369-402

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Commodity Price Volatility and Fiscal Balance in Commodity-Exporting Countries

Author(s)

Rezagholizadeh Mahdieh | Aghaei Majid | Zaghi Saroukolaee Mehrdad | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Commodity

Price Volatility

Fiscal Balance

Selected Countries

PMG

Abstract

Fiscal balance serves as a key indicator of the effectiveness of fiscal policy, making it a fundamental instrument for governments in pursuing developmental goals and ensuring macroeconomic stability. This role becomes even more critical in commodity-exporting countries, where fiscal outcomes are highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations, amplifying the need for prudent and countercyclical fiscal management. Commodity price volatility is closely linked to the real sector of a country's economy and can directly and indirectly impact fiscal balance through changes in income and expenditures. Given the importance of this issue, this study examines the effect of Commodity Price volatility on the fiscal balance of selected commodity-exporting countries from 2004 to 2021. The relationships between the variables are estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) technique. The empirical findings reveal a negative and significant relationship between the volatilities of the Commodity Price volatility and the fiscal balance of commodity-exporting countries in the short-run. However, the long-run effect is positive and significant. Moreover, the results show that inflation's effect on fiscal balance is positive in the short run but becomes negative in the long run. Additionally, the unemployment rate has a negative and significant long-run impact on fiscal balance, while its short-run effect is negative but statistically insignificant. Through applying the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (P-VECM), a bidirectional short-run causality was confirmed between Commodity Price Volatility and Fiscal balance, while in the long run, the results indicate a unidirectional causal flow from commodity price volatility to fiscal balance.

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