THE ROLE OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND IN REDUCING IRAN’S ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON DSGE APPROACH

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HOSSEINZADE YOUSEFABAD S.M.; MEHRARA MOHSEN; TAVAKKOLIAN HOSSEIN

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Journal: Financial Economics Year:2018 | Volume:11 | Issue:41 Page(s): 1-41

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Title

THE ROLE OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND IN REDUCING IRAN’S ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON DSGE APPROACH

Author(s)

HOSSEINZADE YOUSEFABAD S.M. | MEHRARA MOHSEN | TAVAKKOLIAN HOSSEIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

TAX REVENUEQ2

OIL REVENUEQ2

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUNDQ1

ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONSQ2

DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUMQ1

Abstract

The serious challenge which policy-makers in oil-dependent countries have to confront to is that, due to different economic factors, foreign policy and being exogenous in relation to internal economy, it is not feasible to determine the exact amount of OIL REVENUEs and budgeting. Such challenge has forced economic policy-makers to seek a remedy to lessen negative ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS. In this article, we examine the role of NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND (NDF) as one of the applied solutions in reducing Iran’s ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS in three scenarios and within period of 1989 to 2016 by adopting DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (DSGE) approach. In the first scenario, we assume the government uses only OIL REVENUEs and deposits none of the OIL REVENUEs in NDF. In the second scenario, we assume the government uses oil and TAX REVENUEs and deposits part of earnings of oil sales in NDF. In the third scenario, we assume the government uses only TAX REVENUEs and deposits all OIL REVENUEs in NDF. Results show that OIL REVENUEs have significant impact on economic growth and consumption in the scenarios above. In the second and third scenarios, TAX REVENUE dependency causes reduction in consumption, economic growth and investment in the short run; but in the long run, it has a positive impact on the mentioned variables. Results from the third scenario show that dependency of government on customs duty and TAX REVENUEs and investment by exploiting foreign sources of NDF result in increase in economic growth, consumption and investment.

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APA: Copy

HOSSEINZADE YOUSEFABAD, S.M., MEHRARA, MOHSEN, & TAVAKKOLIAN, HOSSEIN. (2018). THE ROLE OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND IN REDUCING IRAN’S ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON DSGE APPROACH. JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS (FINANCIAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT), 11(41 ), 1-41. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/229149/en

Vancouver: Copy

HOSSEINZADE YOUSEFABAD S.M., MEHRARA MOHSEN, TAVAKKOLIAN HOSSEIN. THE ROLE OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND IN REDUCING IRAN’S ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON DSGE APPROACH. JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS (FINANCIAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT)[Internet]. 2018;11(41 ):1-41. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/229149/en

IEEE: Copy

S.M. HOSSEINZADE YOUSEFABAD, MOHSEN MEHRARA, and HOSSEIN TAVAKKOLIAN, “THE ROLE OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND IN REDUCING IRAN’S ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS BASED ON DSGE APPROACH,” JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS (FINANCIAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT), vol. 11, no. 41 , pp. 1–41, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/229149/en

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