مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

video

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

sound

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Persian Version

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View:

702
مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Download:

168
مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Pages

  1526-1534

Abstract

 Background: Determining the temporal variation and FORECASTING the incidence of smear positive TUBERCULOSIS (TB) can play an important role in promoting the TB control program. Its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. The present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive TB in IRAN.Methods: This a longitudinal study using monthly TUBERCULOSIS incidence data recorded in the IRANian National Tu-berculosis Control Program. The sum of registered cases in each month created 84 time points. Time series methods were used for analysis. Based on the residual chart of ACF, PACF, Ljung-Box tests and the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected.Results: From April 2005 until March 2012, 34012 smear positive TB cases were recorded. The mean of TB monthly incidence was 404.9 (SD=54.7). The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly in-cidence of smear positive TB was significant (P<0.001). SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1) 12 was selected as the most adequate model for prediction. It was predicted that the incidence of smear positive TB for 2015 will be about 9.8 per 100, 000 people.Conclusion: Based on the seasonal pattern of smear positive TB recorded cases, seasonal ARIMA model was suitable for predicting its incidence. Meanwhile, prediction results show an increasing trend of smear positive TB cases in IRAN.

Cites

  • No record.

    • References

    Cite

    APA: Copy

    MOOSAZADEH, MAHMOOD, KHANJANI, NARGES, NASEHI, MAHSHID, & BAHRAMPOUR, ABBAS. (2015). PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 44(11), 1526-1534. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/273787/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    MOOSAZADEH MAHMOOD, KHANJANI NARGES, NASEHI MAHSHID, BAHRAMPOUR ABBAS. PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH[Internet]. 2015;44(11):1526-1534. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/273787/en

    IEEE: Copy

    MAHMOOD MOOSAZADEH, NARGES KHANJANI, MAHSHID NASEHI, and ABBAS BAHRAMPOUR, “PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF SMEAR POSITIVE TUBERCULOSIS CASES IN IRAN USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, vol. 44, no. 11, pp. 1526–1534, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/273787/en

    Related Journal Papers

  • No record.

    • Related Seminar Papers

  • No record.

    • Related Plans

  • No record.

    • Recommended Workshops






    Move to top
    telegram sharing button
    whatsapp sharing button
    linkedin sharing button
    twitter sharing button
    email sharing button
    email sharing button
    email sharing button
    sharethis sharing button