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Information Journal Paper

Title

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS: WEATHER FACTORS, HUMAN MIGRATION AND MALARIA CASES IN ENDEMIC AREA OF PURWOREJO, INDONESIA, 2005-2014

Author(s)

 REJEKI DWI SARWANI SRI | NURHAYATI NUNUNG | AJI BUDI | MURHANDARWATI E. ELSA HERDIANA | KUSNANTO HARI | Issue Writer Certificate 

Pages

  499-509

Abstract

 Background: Climatic and WEATHER FACTORS become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmis-sion like MALARIA. This study aimed to prove relationships between WEATHER FACTORS with considering human mi-gration and previous case findings and MALARIA cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005-2014. Methods: This study employed ecological TIME SERIES ANALYSIS by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, HUMAN MIGRATION, and previous MALARIA cases, while the dependent variable was positive MALARIA cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i. e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model. Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous MALARIA cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with MALARIA cases. Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous MALARIA cases factors need to be considered as prominent indica-tors for the increase of MALARIA case projection.

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    APA: Copy

    REJEKI, DWI SARWANI SRI, NURHAYATI, NUNUNG, AJI, BUDI, MURHANDARWATI, E. ELSA HERDIANA, & KUSNANTO, HARI. (2018). A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS: WEATHER FACTORS, HUMAN MIGRATION AND MALARIA CASES IN ENDEMIC AREA OF PURWOREJO, INDONESIA, 2005-2014. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 47(4), 499-509. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/274534/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    REJEKI DWI SARWANI SRI, NURHAYATI NUNUNG, AJI BUDI, MURHANDARWATI E. ELSA HERDIANA, KUSNANTO HARI. A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS: WEATHER FACTORS, HUMAN MIGRATION AND MALARIA CASES IN ENDEMIC AREA OF PURWOREJO, INDONESIA, 2005-2014. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH[Internet]. 2018;47(4):499-509. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/274534/en

    IEEE: Copy

    DWI SARWANI SRI REJEKI, NUNUNG NURHAYATI, BUDI AJI, E. ELSA HERDIANA MURHANDARWATI, and HARI KUSNANTO, “A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS: WEATHER FACTORS, HUMAN MIGRATION AND MALARIA CASES IN ENDEMIC AREA OF PURWOREJO, INDONESIA, 2005-2014,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 499–509, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/274534/en

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