EARLY DETECTION OF MENINGITIS OUTBREAKS: APPLICATION OFLIMITED-BASELINE DATA

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KARAMI MANOUCHEHR; GHALANDARI MARYAM; POOROLAJAL JALAL; FARADMAL JAVAD

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Journal Paper

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Public Health Year:2017 | Volume:46 | Issue:10 Page(s): 1366-1373

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Information Journal Paper

Title

EARLY DETECTION OF MENINGITIS OUTBREAKS: APPLICATION OFLIMITED-BASELINE DATA

Author(s)

KARAMI MANOUCHEHR | GHALANDARI MARYAM | POOROLAJAL JALAL | FARADMAL JAVAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE

CUMULATIVE SUM

MENINGITIS

OUTBREAK

IRAN

Abstract

Background: There is no published study evaluating the performance of CUMULATIVE SUM (CUSUM) algorithm on MENINGITIS data with limited baseline period. This study aimed to evaluate the CUSUM performance in timely detec-tion of 707 semi-synthetic OUTBREAK days. Methods: Simulated OUTBREAKs were generated using syndromic data on fever and neurological symptoms from Mar 2010 to Mar 2013 in Hamadan Province, the west of IRAN. The performance of CUSUM algorithms, numbered from 1 to 11, in timely detection of OUTBREAKs was measured using sensitivity, specificity, false alarm rate, likelihood ratios and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results: The highest amount of sensitivity was related to algorithm11 (CUSUM (3-9 D 11)) and it was 52% (95% CI: 49%, 56%). Minimum amount of false alarm rate was related to CUSUM (1-7 D 5) algorithm equal to 8% (95% CI: 5, 10) and the best amount of positive likelihood ratio was related to CUSUM (1-7 D 4) equal to 4. 97. CUSUM (1-7 D 1) has the best performance with AUC curve equal to 73% (95 CI%: 70%, 76%), as well. Conclusion: The used approach in this study can be the basis for applying CUSUM algorithm in conditions that there is no access to recorded baseline data about under surveillance diseases or health events.

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APA: Copy

KARAMI, MANOUCHEHR, GHALANDARI, MARYAM, POOROLAJAL, JALAL, & FARADMAL, JAVAD. (2017). EARLY DETECTION OF MENINGITIS OUTBREAKS: APPLICATION OFLIMITED-BASELINE DATA. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 46(10), 1366-1373. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/274654/en

Vancouver: Copy

KARAMI MANOUCHEHR, GHALANDARI MARYAM, POOROLAJAL JALAL, FARADMAL JAVAD. EARLY DETECTION OF MENINGITIS OUTBREAKS: APPLICATION OFLIMITED-BASELINE DATA. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH[Internet]. 2017;46(10):1366-1373. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/274654/en

IEEE: Copy

MANOUCHEHR KARAMI, MARYAM GHALANDARI, JALAL POOROLAJAL, and JAVAD FARADMAL, “EARLY DETECTION OF MENINGITIS OUTBREAKS: APPLICATION OFLIMITED-BASELINE DATA,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, vol. 46, no. 10, pp. 1366–1373, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/274654/en

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