AN ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRAN

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SAMADI SAEID; JALAIE A.M.

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Journal: Journal of Economic Research Year:2004 | Volume:- | Issue:66 Page(s): 139-154

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Title

AN ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRAN

Author(s)

SAMADI SAEID | JALAIE A.M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

BUSINESS CYCLEQ2

GAP OFGDPQ4

RUN TESTQ3

BOX-PIERS STATISTIC.Q4

Abstract

Literature review of BUSINESS CYCLE in economic studies is very old. The economists viewpoints are focused on two directions. Recognition of effective factors, and statistical characteristics of BUSINESS CYCLE. In this paper, the BUSINESS CYCLE ofIrans economy is investigated for 1959-2001. The methodology consists of four steps: the tirs, to estimate the long-run trend of real GDP in linear form, the second, to measure deviation of real GDP from long-run trend, this gaps means, there are periods of recession and boom in economy, the third, to investigate that, the gaps of GDP are stochastic or there is a serial correlation model, we answered this question by Run-Test method. And the fourth, if serial correlation model is confirm how many years length of time a period of BUSINESS CYCLE in Iran economics? We estimate by BOX-PIERS STATISTIC. As a result: There are serial corelations in BUSINESS CYCLE of Iran and the period of one cycle is a bout 11 years. In addition: oil incomes, investment, budget deficit and liquidity are the most important factors in forming BUSINESS CYCLE ofIrans economy. Long-run Economic policies for modified BUSINESS CYCLEs by this paper are obvious.

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APA: Copy

SAMADI, SAEID, & JALAIE, A.M.. (2004). AN ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRAN. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, -(66), 139-154. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/358737/en

Vancouver: Copy

SAMADI SAEID, JALAIE A.M.. AN ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRAN. TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI[Internet]. 2004;-(66):139-154. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/358737/en

IEEE: Copy

SAEID SAMADI, and A.M. JALAIE, “AN ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN IRAN,” TAHGHIGHAT-E-EGHTESADI, vol. -, no. 66, pp. 139–154, 2004, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/358737/en

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