A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model

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Garkaz Omid; Mohammadpour Marzieh; KHALKHALI HAMID REZA; Mehryar Hamid Reza; SALARI LAK SHAKER

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Journal: Research in Medicine Year:2020 | Volume:44 | Issue:3 Page(s): 498-502

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Title

A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model

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Keywords

PredictionQ2

ModelQ2

DamageQ2

DeathQ2

West AzerbaijanQ2

Abstract

Background: Road accidents often cause severe Damage to the victims and have a direct impact on community members. Iran has the highest rate of road accidents. The purpose of the present study was to determine the Model for predicting road Deaths and injuries in West Azerbaijan province based on the data obtained between 2017-2010 in a time series: Box-Jenkins Model. Materials and Methods: In the current descriptive study, all Deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents were analyzed during 2017-2010. In order to determine the process of Death and injury caused by traffic accidents in West Azerbaijan province, time series and Jenkins series Models were used and the process of Death and injury from traffic accidents was predicted in this province. Results: It was found that the trend of accidents was unstable in the study period and the best Model to predict is the ARIMA Model (1, 0, 2) with AIC = 38/78 as a suitable Model for series fitting. Due to the lack of seasonal trend of road accidents in West Azerbaijan province, the trend is decreasing. In fact, in 2018 there were about 269 Deaths which decreased by %7. 4 as compared to that in the year 2017. Conclusion: It seems that the trend of accidents for the upcoming year is also declining, which is a good trend.

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Multi-prediction of value at risk in terms of exponential multiplication-multiplication wakeup method

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APA: Copy

Garkaz, Omid, Mohammadpour, Marzieh, KHALKHALI, HAMID REZA, Mehryar, Hamid Reza, & SALARI LAK, SHAKER. (2020). A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model. PAJOUHESH DAR PEZESHKI, 44(3 ), 498-502. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/380453/en

Vancouver: Copy

Garkaz Omid, Mohammadpour Marzieh, KHALKHALI HAMID REZA, Mehryar Hamid Reza, SALARI LAK SHAKER. A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model. PAJOUHESH DAR PEZESHKI[Internet]. 2020;44(3 ):498-502. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/380453/en

IEEE: Copy

Omid Garkaz, Marzieh Mohammadpour, HAMID REZA KHALKHALI, Hamid Reza Mehryar, and SHAKER SALARI LAK, “A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model,” PAJOUHESH DAR PEZESHKI, vol. 44, no. 3 , pp. 498–502, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/380453/en

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