FORECAST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTENSITY OF RED MEAT IMPORTS AND THE INPUT OF ANIMAL BARLEY

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SHAFIEIZADEH A.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Trade Studies Year:2000 | Volume:4 | Issue:14 Page(s): 149-176

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Title

FORECAST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTENSITY OF RED MEAT IMPORTS AND THE INPUT OF ANIMAL BARLEY

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SHAFIEIZADEH A. | Issue Writer Certificate

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Abstract

This paper sulveys the meat market. Primarily, the importance, objectives, assumptions and methodology of the study are discussed. Then production quality, imports and per capita consumption of red meat are addressed. Red meat demand is estimated by rural and urban areas as well as its domestic supply and the demand of barley input. Then based on population trend, per capita income is prices the demand and domestic supply of red meat are forecasted by exploiting estimation functions. Also, by estimation, barley input are forecasted. If necessary, required quantities to be imported in the years between 1999 until 2001 has also been calculated. The paper presents estimation of red meat demand function by urban and rural areas as well as its supply, barley input demand, imports of red met, imports of barley and required exchange allocation in the coming years based on different scenarios. In the first scenario it is assumed the price of red meat is the same as the average rate of growth in the period of 1989-96. The second and third scenarios one and two percent more than the average growth rate of the said period are assumed respectively. The latter scenarios are based on diminishes in the government intervention in the imports with fixed rate exchange rate and increase in the imports of private sector with market rate exchange rates. Based on the first and second scenarios, the imports quantity of red meat in 1989 is nil and for the years 2000-2001 has a rising trend. In the third scenario, the imports of red meat will happen only in 2001. Imports of barley has an increasing trend in all three scenarios in the years 1999-2001. In addition, the trend of exchange intensity of barley is decreasing where as for red meat shows a rising trend. These result indicate that self sufficiency in red meat is too optimistic and imports of this commodity will increase in the coming years.

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APA: Copy

SHAFIEIZADEH, A.. (2000). FORECAST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTENSITY OF RED MEAT IMPORTS AND THE INPUT OF ANIMAL BARLEY. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), 4(14), 149-176. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/7260/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAFIEIZADEH A.. FORECAST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTENSITY OF RED MEAT IMPORTS AND THE INPUT OF ANIMAL BARLEY. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS)[Internet]. 2000;4(14):149-176. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/7260/en

IEEE: Copy

A. SHAFIEIZADEH, “FORECAST OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTENSITY OF RED MEAT IMPORTS AND THE INPUT OF ANIMAL BARLEY,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), vol. 4, no. 14, pp. 149–176, 2000, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/7260/en

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