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Information Journal Paper

Title

The Geographic Distribution of Excess Mortality Rate due to COVID-19 in Iranian Population: An Ecological Study

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Abstract

 Background: COVID-19 has raised a worldwide trajectory since it emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The direct and indirect mortalities in the world and as well as in Iran have increased significantly after the occurrence of this pandemic. Objectives: In this study, Mortality/fa?page=1&sort=1&ftyp=all&fgrp=all&fyrs=all" target="_blank">Excess Mortality Rate (EMR) was estimated by multilevel poison regression method and then this estimation was compared to the historical trends to obtain total deaths related to COVID-19. Additionally, the geographic distribution of EMR has also been presented for Iran. Methods: All-cause Mortality rates of each province of Iran from March 21, 2013 to September 22, 2021 was downloaded from National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR). The data of COVID-19 pandemic period (spring 1399 SH (Mar 20, 2020) to summer 1400 SH (Sep 22, 2021)) was removed from the data and then the multilevel poison model was applied to estimate all-cause Mortality in this period. Then, EMR= (real deaths-expected death)/(real deaths) ratio was calculated. Results: The results of this study showed that Iran’, s EMR in COVID-19 pandemic was 36% (Male=35%, Female=36%, P-value=0. 798). Our findings also revealed four category of EMR including low (EMR≤, 30%, n=9), moderate (30 %< EMR≤, 35%, n=8), high (35 %< EMR≤, 40%, n=10) and very high (40 %< EMR, n=4) in different provinces. Conclusion: Due to the diverse EMR in different provinces of Iran, the type of disease management of provinces with low and moderate EMR can be used as an appropriate model to control EMR in provinces with high and very high EMR.

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    APA: Copy

    Molaei, Alireza, & GHOLAMI FESHARAKI, MOHAMMAD. (2021). The Geographic Distribution of Excess Mortality Rate due to COVID-19 in Iranian Population: An Ecological Study. IRANIAN RED CRESCENT MEDICAL JOURNAL (IRCMJ), 23(11), 0-0. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/994020/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    Molaei Alireza, GHOLAMI FESHARAKI MOHAMMAD. The Geographic Distribution of Excess Mortality Rate due to COVID-19 in Iranian Population: An Ecological Study. IRANIAN RED CRESCENT MEDICAL JOURNAL (IRCMJ)[Internet]. 2021;23(11):0-0. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/994020/en

    IEEE: Copy

    Alireza Molaei, and MOHAMMAD GHOLAMI FESHARAKI, “The Geographic Distribution of Excess Mortality Rate due to COVID-19 in Iranian Population: An Ecological Study,” IRANIAN RED CRESCENT MEDICAL JOURNAL (IRCMJ), vol. 23, no. 11, pp. 0–0, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/994020/en

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